UK CAR INDUSTRIES

Agree! but i do have some articles below.........

I am not an arbiter of bad news. Heck, there are those who would say I'm not an arbiter of any news. Nor am I a prognosticator of economic trends, including my own. But I am a long-time observer of the automotive world and I can read the headlines as well as anyone else and I'm going to say, right now, we are heading for a freefall.

The signs are there for anyone to see. Sales in the US have already begun to slow; November's figures are a considerable drop from the same time last year. New car sales and profits are down in Europe and most of Asia because of gas prices and currency fluctuations. Plant over-capacity is becoming a serious threat everywhere.

The industry itself is under siege with DaimlerChrysler being sued for $8-billion by an angry shareholder, Daewoo bankrupt, Ford in defensive mode because of SUV tire problems.

The banks are stuck with a surfeit of lease cars turned in at the end of their two-year terms. Indeed, they've lost so much money that several are getting out of the leasing business.

Good times became greed times
We have (as the politicians are endlessly reminding us) been enjoying a protracted period of economic prosperity. As often happens in such times, the bigger-faster-more endorphins kicked in: bigger engines, bigger SUV's, faster speeds, more niche vehicles, more power, more options.

Before all this started, for goodness sake, there was no such thing as a "near-luxury-vehicle." What a dumb phrase that is.

Someone once said -- I think it was Alfred P. Sloane, the man who built General Motors -- that what's good for GM is good for the country. While General Motors no longer has that kind of economic clout it can truthfully be stated that what happens to the auto industry affects the entire nation. The automobile industry is the canary in the coal mine. We could be headed for a recession.

Though the recent increase in fuel prices has tapered off, such respite is only temporary. Enormous political forces are at work here, with oil as the bargaining chip. We in North America, currently enjoying the world's lowest gasoline prices, remain smug about fuel's affordability. But we're in for a shock. Energy prices -- everything from natural gas to petroleum -- will continue to rise.

And remember, though most of us think of the price of gasoline as a major irritant, energy prices affect all sorts of transport, from trucks to passenger jets as well as home/business heating and manufacturing.

Gas-guzzling SUV's go first
When times get tough, the tough (or perhaps the smart) get going with smaller, lighter, simpler, more economical vehicles. Which means that companies like Porsche and Saturn (strange bedfellows!) will be hung out to dry with their too-late-to-market sport-utility vehicles.

First to go in an economic slowdown are the gas-guzzlers. Next, the image machines. Buyers start looking for sensible transportation; not necessarily bare-bones people haulers but cars that deliver the basics at a sensible cost without sacrificing comfort and convenience. The standard-bearer will depend on individual circumstances; there will never be one car for all the people, thank goodness.

Although no one knows exactly what cars will succeed in a cautionary future, this much I can tell you: light, compact, affordable vehicles that combine family car comfort with SUV/minivan adaptability -- and toss in enough sportiness to make driving fun -- are the ones to watch.

Which means the future may not be so bleak after all -- as long as we remember that in cars as in architecture, less is more.

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The concept on which North America had based its mobility (automobiles, as in "cars") was shoved aside in the 1990's by minivans, by pickup trucks cutely transformed into downtown showboats, and finally by station wagon bodies mounted atop truck frames, the latter giving rise to that most oxymorononic of automotive terms, the sport-utility vehicle.

In the rapidly expanding economy of the 90's it hardly mattered that brute-utes were heavy, un-aerodynamic, fuel-guzzling vehicles which, as we now sadly know, have a propensity for rolling over when improperly driven or when tire pressures are neglected.

Auto industry must share blame
Yet, when diagnosing the damage, we mustn't put the blame entirely on sport-utes and their owners. In the last ten years the industry has dazzled consumers with an unnecessary surfeit of "mores" in everything from economy cars to luxury sedans. More horsepower... more cylinders... more acceleration... more speed... more size... more weight... more gadgetry... more computer-based systems... more of everything.

Let's call it "The More Decade."

The auto industry is beginning to pay the price of such excesses. The Chrysler arm of DaimlerChrysler is losing billions, closing plants. General Motors is making major cutbacks in production, domestically and internationally. Daewoo is bankrupt. Ford, bleeding badly in Europe, is in the process of shutting factories in the UK. Banks are getting out of the auto leasing business. Fuel prices keep rising. The economy, we are told, is entering a serious downturn, maybe even a recession. In these conditions change is inevitable.

Could drag Porsche under
Consumers who don't require work vehicles will gradually turn away from gas-guzzling trucks as they adjust their lifestyles to a new era. But with smaller, more car-based vehicles growing in popularity, sport-utes are unlikely to disappear from the market -- though fuel economy will again become a matter of considerable urgency.

Companies arriving late at the SUV party -- Saturn and Porsche among them -- are going to find little enthusiasm in that over-inflated segment. With GM cash as support, Saturn may survive, but it is actually possible that Porsche, having spent a fortune on developing a vehicle that bears no resemblance to those that made that illustrious marque desirable, could well be dragged under if the automaker finds too few prospects for its new product.

Though the luxury market itself will not collapse -- the wealthy have ways of protecting their money -- you can certainly expect an upsurge in compact car sales along with a renewed interest in value for money as a purchasing criterion. It should not be assumed that I'm proposing a return to past ways, however. The industry has been through many upheavals since its beginning, from wars to depressions to technological revolutions. It adapts, then renews itself.

Tracking the auto shows
With the 2001 Los Angeles and North American Auto Shows almost upon us, there could hardly be a better time to see what the future holds. Regretably, most of the new cars and trucks to be unveiled at these expositions had their genesis at least two years ago, so don't be misled by what you see displayed there. Among them, however, will be some real prognosticators; dramatic new vehicles which demonstrate the possibilities of a decade unencumbered by more and, hopefully, not dragged down by greed.

About Cars will be providing extensive coverage of these two great shows in the next three weeks, though with a difference. Our focus will be on cars that represent genuine social, technical, and artistic progress. Because, as I said in the beginning, I really am of good cheer.
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