Hello :) I've mainly used this for code related issues, with great success so far, so lets give it a shot with a stupid probability hurdle I'm trying to cross.
I have a sample size of 5869 "tries". Each "try" is something that starts at the bottom (at 1) and goes to the top (to 20). As each "try" goes along, it will stop on a number between 1 and 20. More stop off at the bottom than the top. Here's the visual example...
20 - 3
19 - 3
18 - 8
17 - 8
16 - 19
15 - 21
14 - 32
13 - 50
12 - 62
11 - 99
10 - 119
9 - 134
8 - 197
7 - 232
6 - 328
5 - 503
4 - 663
3 - 843
2 - 1235
1 - 1305
The left hand side is the numbers, 1 to 20. The right hand side is the number, out of the 5869 tries, that dropped off at that number. As you can see, 1305 "dropped off", or stopped, at 1. 1235 stopped at 2. 843 stopped at 3, and so on.
I am looking for a formula that will help me here...Given these numbers, I need the probability that, on the next test (number 5870), that it will go from 1 to 2. Or from 2 to 3. Or from 3 to 4. The percentages are easy enough to work out, but I need the statistical probability that it will CONTINUE to the next number. No clue how to find that out.
I hope I'm explaining myself correctly here. What do you guys think? :)
