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Hello experts,

I am trying to find a freeware Blackjack or Roulette simulator that will double down losses (the "Martingale" theory). I have been using the Sage Blackjack Simulator but the betting strategy is flat.

My purpose is to simulate with different sized initial bankrolls and different sized inital bets to find the maximum bet ever made, the return, etc.

Any ideas? I might just try to make my own in Excel, but I was hoping someone had already done this.

-Jess

I am trying to find a freeware Blackjack or Roulette simulator that will double down losses (the "Martingale" theory). I have been using the Sage Blackjack Simulator but the betting strategy is flat.

My purpose is to simulate with different sized initial bankrolls and different sized inital bets to find the maximum bet ever made, the return, etc.

Any ideas? I might just try to make my own in Excel, but I was hoping someone had already done this.

-Jess

It sounds like you are looking to simulate a playing strategy and measure its characteristics. Perhaps I will see what I can learn about the Martingale theory...

Supposedly, the only things limiting this betting strategy are guts/bankroll/casino table maximums. I don't want to have to count cards, it's difficult and I prefer to play at a faster pace online.

As background information, I am finding reputable online casinos (an oxymoron?) that have huge incentives for players to sign up or come back (i.e. 200% initial deposit bonus). I then use Martingale theory to play and use their bonuses/comps to help pad any losses. I did this playing roulette in Vegas and did quite well, even getting asked to leave one casino unless I would change games or vary my style.

Thanks...

-Jess

So what is needed is a simulation that provides a random sequence of win/loss outcomes by hand based on the house edge value. This is pretty easy to do. The input to the program would be the house edge in percent (say 0.50), and the number of games to play. Then the output would be the overall winnings (based on a base bet of 1) and the max bet placed.

It would make sense to have the simulation always end on a winning hand too. It wouldn't make much sense to end a session using the Martingale theory on a losing hand.

It would be better to have the simulation repeat the set of games many times and then produce the outputs as a distribution of values. That way you could see how likely it is to reach a certain level of winnings and maximum bet.

I find this interesting and I think I will go ahead and code this. It looks like about 4 hours of work total for me so I should have some results to report later this week.

Please let me know if this makes sense to you.

What do you think you will code in? VBA/Excel or something more along the lines of SAS? I've done some basic simulations in Excel, and I might even be able to contribute something of my own here.

-Jess

3 Columns.

1st shows win amount and number of experiments with this result.

2nd shows max bet and number of experiments with this result.

3rd shows games played and number of experiments with this result.

(We play until have 1st win at 100 or more games.)

Win Loss Max Bet Games played

28 1 1048580 1 100 49787

29 1 2097150 1 101 24734

30 1 4 18 102 12606

31 5 8 2133 103 6396

32 14 8388610 1 104 3255

33 17 16 14242 105 1544

34 46 32 25257 106 848

35 67 64 23393 107 428

36 136 128 15575 108 191

37 292 256 9174 109 101

38 411 512 4921 110 48

39 709 1024 2529 111 28

40 1098 2048 1357 112 19

41 1567 4096 709 113 8

42 2193 8192 350 114 2

43 2919 16384 168 115 3

44 3832 32768 97 116 1

45 4867 65536 40 117 1

46 5812 131072 20

47 6697 262144 9

48 7458 524288 5

49 7696

50 8256

51 7852

52 7420

53 6533

54 5954

55 4774

56 3813

57 3003

58 2278

59 1579

60 1092

61 603

62 407

63 275

64 137

65 100

66 45

67 25

68 8

69 4

70 2

71 1

I suggest you read this before pluncking your money on the table.

http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/articles/5315.html

-Jess

that was indeed a good article ....

Perhaps I will go to Lost Wages Nevada to test the double-the-bet technique.

It is worthwhile to note that a statistical analysis is not a simulation....

It would be possible to write a good blackjack simulation in VB6 ....

I think different casinos have some variation of the rules so a simulation

would apply based on a specific set of rules.

leo

You can't just quit after a win. The max bet imposed by the casino stops this, and quitting after a win implies an unlimited

The house edge is closer to 5%, if you play straight. If you use something, tables for instance, to 'improve' your play, you mess the Martingale system. You can get the house edge down to .03%, apparently, but you have to use doubling down, insurance, and splitting to do it, and then you've messed the Martingale.

Perhaps you'd like to collaborate on this - I have the programming skills. I am working on applying some futures trading methodologies to a similar theory. You can reach me at cbarnett-AT-yahoo-DOT-com.

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My understanding is that the probability, p, of a win for the player can be expressed in terms of the house edge h.

h = house edge = (hands played - hands won by player)/(hands played) - 1/2

So if player wins half the hands dealt then house edge is 0.

p = (hands won by player)/(hands played)

So

h = 1/2 - p

Or

p = 1/2 - h

Given h, calculate p. Then we need a function, getResultOfHand(p), to return a win/loss or true/false based on probability p. This can be built using the random number generator. Say we generate a random number between 0 and 1. If the value is less than or equal to p we return true, else false.

I can tinker with this some more tomorrow. Perhaps you can see what you can come up with for the getResultOfHand(p) function in VBA.