Forcasting Server Load and Capacity
Posted on 2005-04-07
I'm trying to forecast traffic for a website that is going to be opened up to the public for free. I expect a GeeWiz factor to really push the hardware for the first month, and I'm worried about stability.
Part 1. Is there a way to forecast concurrent users without doing a market study? Could I look at an existing similar web site and use it as a base (via alexa's stats)?
Part 2. I also need to know how many concurrent users apache (on unix) can handle. Horse power (read up to 50k per server) is not a problem.
Currently, I get 100k hits per day that are internal to this international org. And I know hits do not equal actual page views or visitors. I also know (I think) that a web browser(IE) opens multiple connections (2-8) per session because users are very sticky, and that session our timeout is set at 20 minutes.
Bonus points for calculation examples for forecasting.