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When will 4GB DDR2 800MHz (PC2-6400) 200-PIN SODIMM modules be reasonably priced?

One of the principal reasons I decided to go with 64-bit Vista as the OS on a new laptop was because I could have up to 8GB of RAM.  But I was surprised to see that although purchasing a total of 4GB of RAM (2 x 2GB) was very reasonably priced, it would cost me more than ten times the price of 4GB to upgrade my system to 8GB (2 x 4GB).  I was told that the prices for the 4GB modules would come down within a month or two as production volumes increased, but this has not happened.  

Does anyone have any insights what the likely pricing evolution is going to be for 4GB laptop memory modules?  How long will I have to wait before the premium over 2GB modules becomes more reasonable?
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Kurvenal
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Kurvenal
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RartemassAuthor, martial arts coach, IT ConsultantCommented:
It comes down to demand. The higher the demand, the quicker the development costs are recovered. Thus the manufacturers can reduce the price.
Costs also drop when the next model is released.

At the moment 4Gb of RAM is standard. Most people don't go over this limit, even with a 64Bit OS. This is because most applications don't utilise it. As most applications and games are made for a 32bit OS, developers haven't really gone above the need for 4gb RAM. There are some that do, but they are currently in the minority.
Until the majority of applications are 64bit coded, there won't be the demand for higher capacity ram.

In my opinion it will be about 10 to 24 months before the price is reasonable. There will be price drops during that time, but it will take a while for it to be practical.

The release of Windows 7 late this year-early next year should spark things along.
People will buy a PC and get Windows 7. Computer stores should suggest getting the 64bit version. This will encourage developers to utilise more than 4gb ram, thus increasing demand and lowering prices.

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KurvenalAuthor Commented:
Thanks for your reply.  I think I am going to bite the bullet and go for the 8GB upgrade.  I find that when I have multiple apps open at the same time, which I do most of the time, it slows the system down, so I would be interested in the performance boost.

Question:  Transcend from Taiwan are showing the most competitive price.  Are these memory modules commodities and therefore interchangeable?  What is Transcend's reputation in the market?
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KurvenalAuthor Commented:
Ignore last comment on the Transcend modules as they are not available in any case.
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