gburditt
asked on
Upcoming tsunami in November
On November 2, all 435 members of the House and 35 members of the US Senate are up for re-election. Given the current political climate in the US, how many of those 470 people will actually be re-elected? 60% of points will go to the closest, 30% to second closest and 10% to third.
Feel free to editorialize your prognostications.
Points will be awarded on November 3.
Feel free to editorialize your prognostications.
Points will be awarded on November 3.
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I guess I am too old and jaded to be as optimistic as you seem to be...
I base my opinion on what I see in the media as well as personal conversations with the public at large... Not very uplifting to say the least!
If 90% seems too large, take into consideration that of the 470 seats up (house & senate) 93% are in the house. ALL the senators could be ousted and still exceed my prognostication.
Although the "tea partiers" get some press, they are truly insignificant in number and I think the bulk of mainstream politicos rightfully dismiss them as feckless noise... The vast majority of the electorate all have too much vested interest in staying on the public dole either beholding to the "ins" for their livelihoods or phony "rebate" checks to ever dream of upsetting the applecart.
And since the "ins" can Gerrymander to heart's content after the recent census, they can certainly "rig" the districts to insure favorable outcomes in problematic areas!
The future is NOT bright... NO need for shades...
I base my opinion on what I see in the media as well as personal conversations with the public at large... Not very uplifting to say the least!
If 90% seems too large, take into consideration that of the 470 seats up (house & senate) 93% are in the house. ALL the senators could be ousted and still exceed my prognostication.
Although the "tea partiers" get some press, they are truly insignificant in number and I think the bulk of mainstream politicos rightfully dismiss them as feckless noise... The vast majority of the electorate all have too much vested interest in staying on the public dole either beholding to the "ins" for their livelihoods or phony "rebate" checks to ever dream of upsetting the applecart.
And since the "ins" can Gerrymander to heart's content after the recent census, they can certainly "rig" the districts to insure favorable outcomes in problematic areas!
The future is NOT bright... NO need for shades...
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ASKER
n2fC:
Believe me, I am as jaded as the next guy. I grew up in Chicago in the "Shoot to kill" era, so politics has always been slimy in the world I live in. And I think that there are very few things in the world as stupid as the average American voter... maybe an amoeba. Anybody who disputes that, just watch Leno/Letterman take their stroll some night and talk to the average voter.
But going back to your math: Since 37 congressmen have already retired, it will take much less than 100% turnover in the Senate to reach the 90% threshold, and that's assuming that every single House seat where the incumbent is running will hold form. I am expecting another 20-30 to retire between now and the election because they can see the handwriting on the wall. And if you believe the Rasmussen Reports, which have a very high degree of accuracy, this November we will see more turnovers than we would if we watched a Detroit Lions game.
It will be interesting to read this in 6 months and see how smart/stupid we all are.
Believe me, I am as jaded as the next guy. I grew up in Chicago in the "Shoot to kill" era, so politics has always been slimy in the world I live in. And I think that there are very few things in the world as stupid as the average American voter... maybe an amoeba. Anybody who disputes that, just watch Leno/Letterman take their stroll some night and talk to the average voter.
But going back to your math: Since 37 congressmen have already retired, it will take much less than 100% turnover in the Senate to reach the 90% threshold, and that's assuming that every single House seat where the incumbent is running will hold form. I am expecting another 20-30 to retire between now and the election because they can see the handwriting on the wall. And if you believe the Rasmussen Reports, which have a very high degree of accuracy, this November we will see more turnovers than we would if we watched a Detroit Lions game.
It will be interesting to read this in 6 months and see how smart/stupid we all are.
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>>Yeah, the system sucks. Its the worst one out there .......
>>This polarizes and causes confrontional politics
QED
>>This polarizes and causes confrontional politics
QED
ASKER
"Democracy, while it lasts, is more bloody than either aristocracy or monarchy. Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There is never a democracy that did not commit suicide." - John Adams
A depressing thought from one of our founding fathers, but hard to argue with under the current circumstances...
A depressing thought from one of our founding fathers, but hard to argue with under the current circumstances...
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LSMConsulting is someone else who can't take a joke.
ASKER
Under normal circumstances you'd be right. People normally vote for a name they recognize, because life is OK, so why rock the boat? But .life is not OK any more and there is an enormous groundswell of resistance to politics as usual. And not just among the Tea Party. We've already seen 11 Senators resign (out of 36, not 35, by the way. I was one off in my initial number). And another one, Bob Bennett of Utah, has been voted out in the Republican caucus. So if every remaining Senator should win, that would still only be 67%. Arlen Specter is probably not even going to survive the primary. Harry Reid is on the way to eviction. And John McCain may not be around next year either. I will be surprised if the number of Senators that is ousted is less than 20.
The House may be a bit less volatile simply because of the gerrymandering of the districts, but not much. 37 of them have already retired and one more (Alan Mollohan) has been ousted, so they'll need to hold onto virtually every remaining seat in order to have a 90% return rate.
Nov 2 will be a very interesting night....