Upcoming tsunami in November

gburditt
gburditt used Ask the Experts™
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On November 2, all 435 members of the House and 35 members of the US Senate are up for re-election.  Given the current political climate in the US, how many of those 470 people will actually be re-elected?  60% of points will go to the closest, 30% to second closest and 10% to third.

Feel free to editorialize your prognostications.

Points will be awarded on November 3.
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Since there are no intelligence, literacy or even language requirements for US voters, and in general US voters are sorely lacking in the ability to analyze the issues and positions of elected officials, instead basing the voting decision on such criteria as "name recognition," media hype and appearance, I suspect that (as usual) over 90% of those seeking re-election will once again be re-elected.

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Commented:
n2fc:

Under normal circumstances you'd be right.  People normally vote for a name they recognize, because life is OK, so why rock the boat?  But .life is not OK any more and there is an enormous groundswell of resistance to politics as usual.  And not just among the Tea Party.  We've already seen 11 Senators resign (out of 36, not 35, by the way.  I was one off in my initial number).  And another one, Bob Bennett of Utah, has been voted out in the Republican caucus.  So if every remaining Senator should win, that would still only be 67%.  Arlen Specter is probably not even going to survive the primary.  Harry Reid is on the way to eviction.  And John McCain may not be around next year either.  I will be surprised if the number of Senators that is ousted is less than 20.

The House may be a bit less volatile simply because of the gerrymandering of the districts, but not much.  37 of them have already retired and one more (Alan Mollohan) has been ousted, so they'll need to hold onto virtually every remaining seat in order to have a 90% return rate.

Nov 2 will be a very interesting night....
I guess I am too old and jaded to be as optimistic as you seem to be...

I base my opinion on what I see in the media as well as personal conversations with the public at large... Not very uplifting to say the least!

If 90% seems too large, take into consideration that of the 470 seats up (house & senate) 93% are in the house.  ALL the senators could be ousted and still exceed my prognostication.

Although the "tea partiers" get some press, they are truly insignificant in number and I think the bulk of mainstream politicos rightfully dismiss them as feckless noise...   The vast majority of the electorate all have too much vested interest in staying on the public dole either beholding to the "ins" for their livelihoods or phony "rebate" checks to ever dream of upsetting the applecart.

And since the "ins" can Gerrymander to heart's content after the recent census, they can certainly "rig" the districts to insure favorable outcomes in problematic areas!

The future is NOT bright... NO need for shades...
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dhsindyRetired considering supplemental income.
Commented:
Flip a coin.  I say 51% will be reelected.  We have very bad candidates that has already one their primary.  :-(

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Commented:
n2fC:

Believe me, I am as jaded as the next guy.  I grew up in Chicago in the "Shoot to kill" era, so politics has always been slimy in the world I live in.  And I think that there are very few things in the world as stupid as the average American voter... maybe an amoeba.  Anybody who disputes that, just watch Leno/Letterman take their stroll some night and talk to the average voter.

But going back to your math:  Since 37 congressmen have already retired, it will take much less than 100% turnover in the Senate to reach the 90% threshold, and that's assuming that every single House seat where the incumbent is running will hold form.  I am expecting another 20-30 to retire between now and the election because they can see the handwriting on the wall.  And if you believe the Rasmussen Reports, which have a very high degree of accuracy, this November we will see more turnovers than we would if we watched a Detroit Lions game.

It will be interesting to read this in 6 months and see how smart/stupid we all are.
Commented:
>>And I think that there are very few things in the world as stupid as the average American voter...

One of the sad things with American politics is the fact that the system has settled down to two parties. The electoral system gives the winner everything, so that the result is that neither party has to take any notice of the other. This polarizes and causes confrontional politics. It is therefore no wonder that the average American voter accepts this as normal and sees issues very black and white. To say that they are stupid is not fair, just bcause they know of nothing else.

My guess is a slight swing to the right, resulting in rougly 60% of the seats remaining in the same hands, or roughly 40% changing.
>One of the sad things with American politics is the fact that the system has settled down to two parties.

Yeah, the system sucks. Its the worst one out there .... except for every other system ever developed by man.
Top Expert 2012
Commented:
To paraphrase Winston Churchill, so to speak.

:)

Commented:
>>Yeah, the system sucks. Its the worst one out there .......

>>This polarizes and causes confrontional politics

QED

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Commented:
"Democracy, while it lasts, is more bloody than either aristocracy or monarchy.  Remember, democracy never lasts long.  It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself.  There is never a democracy that did not commit suicide." - John Adams

A depressing thought from one of our founding fathers, but hard to argue with under the current circumstances...
Most Valuable Expert 2012
Top Expert 2014
Commented:
BigRat: I certainly wouldn't qualify your statements as any means or sort of definitive proof, therefore the QED is somewhat arrogant and self-serving. Your opinions are you own, and they prove nothing.

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I think Republicans will pick up 22 seats in the House.

I think Republicans will pick up 4 seats in the Senate.

Will the Census redraws come into play this year? Regardless, you can expect some horrendous battles regarding those redraws.

Commented:
LSMConsulting is someone else who can't take a joke.

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