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# earthquake probability question

Hi there;

Which parameters are used to assess the probability of earthquake to happen in a  time frame, magnitude of the earthquake?

I need a generic explanation for this.

Kind regarsd.
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jazzIIIlove
1 Solution

Commented:
The answer is that there is no really reliable way to predict earthquakes.
The best results are due to extensive study of fault lines. Laser beams have been used to detect small shifts across faults. If the shifts increase, earthquake warnings are given.
An increase in the number of small earthquakes is a warning signal.
Conversely a decrease in small earthquakes is a warning sign because fault stress is not being relived.

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Commented:
Past frequency earthquakes are scale invariant.  Each occurrence has no effect on either the frequency or magnitude of another earthquake.  Therefore, historical records of the frequency occurrence of an earthquake is the best estimate of the next earthquake regardless if you just had an earthquake yesterday.  The magnitude of an earthquake has no relationship to the frequency of an earthquake.  It's statistically random.

As such it is a lot like the weather, historical averages of past weather is the best indicator of future weather.
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Commented:
That is untrue.  Small earthquakes are more frequent than large earthquakes.
And earthquakes are statistically more likely when another earthquake has recently happened.
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progCommented:

Another possible factor is that over time, pressure can build up along fault lines, making an earthquake increasingly more likely as time passes (in some regions).  So the old adage of 'there hasn't been an earthquake here for 50 years, so maybe we are due one soon' could be based on fact.
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Commented:
The entire earth must be factored in, that is, the tectonic plates. If one has a great shift on the other side of the world, you have to look at HOW did it move? Up? Down? Over? Under? Newton's law of physics should pertain: For every action there will be an equal and opposite reaction. Think about Japan, then Chile. How were they related? Which tectonic plates do they share? How could movements travel? It went: Japan's Pacific Plate to the Nazca Plate which happens to border Chile.

Small quakes relieve pressure and are said to reduce the likelihood of 'the BIG ONE', but I don't take chances. lol
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Commented:
Worldwide, each year there are about 18 earthquakes magnitude (M) 7.0 or larger.

Although we are not able to predict individual earthquakes, the world's largest earthquakes do have a clear spatial pattern, and "forecasts" of the locations and magnitudes of some future large earthquakes can be made.

Most large earthquakes occur on long fault zones around the margin of the Pacific Ocean.

This is because the Atlantic Ocean is growing a few inches wider each year, and the Pacific is shrinking as ocean floor is pushed beneath Pacific Rim continents.

http://www.pnsn.org/INFO_GENERAL/eq_prediction.html
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Commented:
Have you experienced an earthquake before?
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Author Commented:
I was in Turkey when there was that earthquake but guys what i am askung is that i need some statistical methods to assess the probability.

E.g. Is the technique, krigging applicable for estimation of an earthquake probability?

If so, is it applicable to utilize this data in Stanford Geostatistical Modeling Software (SGEMS)?

Kind regards.
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Commented:
Although we are not able to predict individual earthquakes, the world's largest earthquakes do have a clear spatial pattern, and "forecasts" of the locations and magnitudes of some future large earthquakes can be made.

The above is the best definitive answer I can find.
Basically, the answer is you can not predict them.
They happen.
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Author Commented:
Hi there;

ok, but i need a statistical approach, not sole  theoretical considerations.

Techniques? Krigging can be applicable to those? If so, how?

Kind regards.
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Commented:
Here is an abstract about "kriging" as related to earthquakes.

Universal kriging is compared with ordinary kriging for estimation of earthquake ground motion.
A. Ordinary kriging is based on a stationary random function model.
Universal kriging is based on a nonstationary random function model.
B. Accuracy of universal kriging is compared with that for ordinary kriging and
cross-validation is used as the basis for comparison.
C. Hypothesis testing on these results shows that accuracy obtained using universal kriging is not significantly different from accuracy obtained using ordinary kriging.
D. Tests based on normal distribution assumptions are applied to errors measured in the cross-validation procedure, reveal no evidence to suggest universal and ordinary kriging are different for estimation of earthquake ground motion.
E. Nonparametric hypothesis tests applied to these errors and jackknife statistics yield the same conclusion: universal and ordinary kriging are not significantly different for this application as determined by a cross-validation procedure.
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Author Commented:
Ah, That's good but where is the link?

Kind regards.
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Author Commented:
ok I found the link. Thanks.
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