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Calculation for fun

Posted on 2011-09-23
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Last Modified: 2012-05-12
Please look at here.
The odds of someone somewhere on Earth getting struck by the NASA satellite are one in 3,200. But any one person's odds are astronomically lower— one in 21 trillion.
How to get it?

Just for the weekend fun.

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Question by:zhshqzyc
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by:sdstuber
sdstuber earned 248 total points
ID: 36587746
3200 * population of earth (a little over 6 billion)

depending on your estimate of total population  one in 18-24 trillion
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by:TommySzalapski
ID: 36587794
Basically you need to multiply the odds that someone gets hit (1/3200) by the probability that you are that person (1/6,960,000,000).
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TommySzalapski earned 252 total points
ID: 36587805
That's using the census' current estimate of world population. The 21 trillion is assuming around 6.56 billion.
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by:TommySzalapski
ID: 36588604
Now: "Orbital Debris Program Office estimates that medium-size junk falls back once a week. Debris the size of the satellite due back Friday occurs less frequently, about once a year."

So the odds that someone, somewhere will get hit by a big thing in the next 52 years is about 1 in 62 assuming nothing changes. If the chance of getting hit by a medium thing is still 1 in 3200 then you've got a 1 in 62 chance per year of someone getting hit.

So for the same 52 years you still have a 42% chance that everyone gets away scott free.
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