How to predict the number of requests that are sent to the server statistically in time?

Posted on 2011-10-14
Last Modified: 2012-05-12
I have an application running on a server. The request on the server increases in time and I need to add more memory to the server. Upto this point everything is fine.

However, I would like to have a prediction methodology (a statistical methodology) which will help me to predict the number of users or number of requests that may come to the server, let's say after 6 months or the chance of highest request can be this much with that much of probability.

I will use AWStats to measure the current statistics.

Is there any tool or method that I can use to make such a prediction?

Note: This is an internal application. So the maximum number of users are restricted with the number of employees. However, as the application gets more popular, more people start to use it. On the other hand, the company continues to grow so the max number of employees increases as well.

Under such conditions, what kind of prediction can I use?

Question by:Tolgar
    LVL 21

    Expert Comment

    Assuming the server is running Windows, you can schedule perfmon to run once a month a collect stats on the number connected users and CPU/mem/disk space.  Then check those reports to gauge the growth of the server's needs.

    Author Comment

    The server is running on unix but this is not important. I can collect the data by AWStats. My question is more about a kind of statistical method that can be applied to such systems.

    Let's say for such an application with that many number of current users and that many max user, if your current load is this and the trend is this then in 6 months you will require that much space. Not an exact number but an approximation.

    I am basically lookin for an n degree equation to predict such a thing if there is something like this from a research paper or published book.


    LVL 21

    Accepted Solution

    If whoever created the application doesn't have any documentation on capacity planning, then you can plug the numbers you're getting from AWStats into a spreadsheet to gauge growth.

    Author Comment

    ok. So, can you give me some advice or some documents on how to do capacity planning for a web application?


    Author Closing Comment

    This does not answer my original question. On the other hand, it is very likely that there may be no answer for this question.

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