[Okta Webinar] Learn how to a build a cloud-first strategyRegister Now

x
?
Solved

Markov chain Monte Carlo and Soccer Matches

Posted on 2012-09-03
3
Medium Priority
?
2,440 Views
Last Modified: 2012-09-04
I'm trying to learn about a statistical simulation called Markov chain Monte Carlo. It is part of Bayesian statistics and is used when the posterior distribution is complicated.

I understand that it can be used to predict the results of soccer matches - can anyone explain exactly what it is about a soccer match that makes the posterior distribution complicated and not for example able to be simulated through a standard probability distribution?
0
Comment
Question by:purplesoup
3 Comments
 
LVL 85

Assisted Solution

by:ozo
ozo earned 600 total points
ID: 38360471
0
 

Author Comment

by:purplesoup
ID: 38360571
Well of course the article suggests it is possible through a Poisson model - which is one of the standard statistical models - but then adds the MCMC at the end as a "novel" approach used by Rue and Salvesen. I don't think it really explains why they used MCMC.
0
 
LVL 37

Accepted Solution

by:
TommySzalapski earned 1400 total points
ID: 38363379
The reason they used MCMC is because it is designed in such a way that it has the time dependent stuff built in. From the article, "Mark Dixon (statistician) and Coles [10] tried to solve this trade-off by assigning a larger weight to the latest match results. Rue and Salvesen [12] introduced a novel time-dependent rating method using the Markov Chain model."

So two guys tried to solve the issue with changing team skill by just adding weight to later games, while Rue and Salvesen used a statistical model that had those elements built in.

The table under "Football Prediction Methods" also shows that it has high performance which would be another reason to choose it.
0

Featured Post

What does it mean to be "Always On"?

Is your cloud always on? With an Always On cloud you won't have to worry about downtime for maintenance or software application code updates, ensuring that your bottom line isn't affected.

Question has a verified solution.

If you are experiencing a similar issue, please ask a related question

A Guide to the PMT, FV, IPMT and PPMT Functions In MS Excel we have the PMT, FV, IPMT and PPMT functions, which do a fantastic job for interest rate calculations.  But what if you don't have Excel ? This article is for programmers looking to re…
Foreword (May 2015) This web page has appeared at Google.  It's definitely worth considering! https://www.google.com/about/careers/students/guide-to-technical-development.html How to Know You are Making a Difference at EE In August, 2013, one …
This is a video describing the growing solar energy use in Utah. This is a topic that greatly interests me and so I decided to produce a video about it.
I've attached the XLSM Excel spreadsheet I used in the video and also text files containing the macros used below. https://filedb.experts-exchange.com/incoming/2017/03_w12/1151775/Permutations.txt https://filedb.experts-exchange.com/incoming/201…
Suggested Courses
Course of the Month19 days, 21 hours left to enroll

872 members asked questions and received personalized solutions in the past 7 days.

Join the community of 500,000 technology professionals and ask your questions.

Join & Ask a Question