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Is historical data always needed for predictions?

Do I always need historical data to make a data mining prediction? Do you have any authoritative reference link on this?

If we don't always need the historical data, then would the following case be realistic for determining the prevailing value or a threshold?

Say Inputs: A, B, C, D, where: C = A/B
Predict: C

Since C is a computation and already exists, what would the Predicted C imply or mean in other words? Do you have an authoritative link on this?
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rodqxo
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rodqxo
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2 Solutions
 
Mark WillsTopic AdvisorCommented:
It depends on your data mining model...

Some models are based on historical trends, or need a quorum of data to represent an adequate population sample. For example, regression analysis.

Other data mining models are more disclosure and discovery based on relationships, called association. For example basket market analysis

But for predictions, we do need some kind of regression analysis, so yes, that would normally mean historical data.

Have you seen or walked through the tutorials ? http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/bb677206.aspx 

There is also a reasonable albeit high level explanation of some techniques : http://www.dataminingtechniques.net/data-mining-tutorial/

There is a plethora of information out there - but I think an assumption of volume is not really disclosed as to how much (or more accurately how little is needed).

There are tools (like the graphs) and statistical measures (like confidence interval) that do help qualify the results, and obviously the bigger the sample, the greater the confidence of prediction.
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Mark WillsTopic AdvisorCommented:
Oh, and is SSAS / data mining you can use lift charts to measure : http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms175428.aspx

There is quite a bit in MSDN about Data Mining, trick is learning where the information is hidden (*sigh* typical MS).

For example, a discussion about Associations (your example) then http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms174916.aspx and check out the topics on the left...
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