Solved

Is historical data always needed for predictions?

Posted on 2013-01-02
2
267 Views
Last Modified: 2016-02-18
Do I always need historical data to make a data mining prediction? Do you have any authoritative reference link on this?

If we don't always need the historical data, then would the following case be realistic for determining the prevailing value or a threshold?

Say Inputs: A, B, C, D, where: C = A/B
Predict: C

Since C is a computation and already exists, what would the Predicted C imply or mean in other words? Do you have an authoritative link on this?
0
Comment
Question by:rodqxo
  • 2
2 Comments
 
LVL 51

Accepted Solution

by:
Mark Wills earned 500 total points
ID: 38739389
It depends on your data mining model...

Some models are based on historical trends, or need a quorum of data to represent an adequate population sample. For example, regression analysis.

Other data mining models are more disclosure and discovery based on relationships, called association. For example basket market analysis

But for predictions, we do need some kind of regression analysis, so yes, that would normally mean historical data.

Have you seen or walked through the tutorials ? http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/bb677206.aspx 

There is also a reasonable albeit high level explanation of some techniques : http://www.dataminingtechniques.net/data-mining-tutorial/

There is a plethora of information out there - but I think an assumption of volume is not really disclosed as to how much (or more accurately how little is needed).

There are tools (like the graphs) and statistical measures (like confidence interval) that do help qualify the results, and obviously the bigger the sample, the greater the confidence of prediction.
0
 
LVL 51

Assisted Solution

by:Mark Wills
Mark Wills earned 500 total points
ID: 38739482
Oh, and is SSAS / data mining you can use lift charts to measure : http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms175428.aspx

There is quite a bit in MSDN about Data Mining, trick is learning where the information is hidden (*sigh* typical MS).

For example, a discussion about Associations (your example) then http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms174916.aspx and check out the topics on the left...
0

Featured Post

NAS Cloud Backup Strategies

This article explains backup scenarios when using network storage. We review the so-called “3-2-1 strategy” and summarize the methods you can use to send NAS data to the cloud

Question has a verified solution.

If you are experiencing a similar issue, please ask a related question

Suggested Solutions

Title # Comments Views Activity
SQL Server - SQL field is defined as text 3 27
SQL Select Statement 2 21
Sql Count with Select Distinct 4 26
SQL Pivot add row totals 2 12
In this article I will describe the Detach & Attach method as one possible migration process and I will add the extra tasks needed for an upgrade when and where is applied so it will cover all.
The Delta outage: 650 cancelled flights, more than 1200 delayed flights, thousands of frustrated customers, tens of millions of dollars in damages – plus untold reputational damage to one of the world’s most trusted airlines. All due to a catastroph…
This video shows how to set up a shell script to accept a positional parameter when called, pass that to a SQL script, accept the output from the statement back and then manipulate it in the Shell.
Viewers will learn how to use the SELECT statement in SQL and will be exposed to the many uses the SELECT statement has.

910 members asked questions and received personalized solutions in the past 7 days.

Join the community of 500,000 technology professionals and ask your questions.

Join & Ask a Question

Need Help in Real-Time?

Connect with top rated Experts

24 Experts available now in Live!

Get 1:1 Help Now