Solved

Is historical data always needed for predictions?

Posted on 2013-01-02
2
275 Views
Last Modified: 2016-02-18
Do I always need historical data to make a data mining prediction? Do you have any authoritative reference link on this?

If we don't always need the historical data, then would the following case be realistic for determining the prevailing value or a threshold?

Say Inputs: A, B, C, D, where: C = A/B
Predict: C

Since C is a computation and already exists, what would the Predicted C imply or mean in other words? Do you have an authoritative link on this?
0
Comment
Question by:rodqxo
[X]
Welcome to Experts Exchange

Add your voice to the tech community where 5M+ people just like you are talking about what matters.

  • Help others & share knowledge
  • Earn cash & points
  • Learn & ask questions
  • 2
2 Comments
 
LVL 51

Accepted Solution

by:
Mark Wills earned 500 total points
ID: 38739389
It depends on your data mining model...

Some models are based on historical trends, or need a quorum of data to represent an adequate population sample. For example, regression analysis.

Other data mining models are more disclosure and discovery based on relationships, called association. For example basket market analysis

But for predictions, we do need some kind of regression analysis, so yes, that would normally mean historical data.

Have you seen or walked through the tutorials ? http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/bb677206.aspx 

There is also a reasonable albeit high level explanation of some techniques : http://www.dataminingtechniques.net/data-mining-tutorial/

There is a plethora of information out there - but I think an assumption of volume is not really disclosed as to how much (or more accurately how little is needed).

There are tools (like the graphs) and statistical measures (like confidence interval) that do help qualify the results, and obviously the bigger the sample, the greater the confidence of prediction.
0
 
LVL 51

Assisted Solution

by:Mark Wills
Mark Wills earned 500 total points
ID: 38739482
Oh, and is SSAS / data mining you can use lift charts to measure : http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms175428.aspx

There is quite a bit in MSDN about Data Mining, trick is learning where the information is hidden (*sigh* typical MS).

For example, a discussion about Associations (your example) then http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms174916.aspx and check out the topics on the left...
0

Featured Post

Online Training Solution

Drastically shorten your training time with WalkMe's advanced online training solution that Guides your trainees to action. Forget about retraining and skyrocket knowledge retention rates.

Question has a verified solution.

If you are experiencing a similar issue, please ask a related question

How to leverage one TLS certificate to encrypt Microsoft SQL traffic and Remote Desktop Services, versus creating multiple tickets for the same server.
Ever wondered why sometimes your SQL Server is slow or unresponsive with connections spiking up but by the time you go in, all is well? The following article will show you how to install and configure a SQL job that will send you email alerts includ…
Using examples as well as descriptions, and references to Books Online, show the documentation available for date manipulation functions and by using a select few of these functions, show how date based data can be manipulated with these functions.
Via a live example, show how to backup a database, simulate a failure backup the tail of the database transaction log and perform the restore.

751 members asked questions and received personalized solutions in the past 7 days.

Join the community of 500,000 technology professionals and ask your questions.

Join & Ask a Question