Solved

Is historical data always needed for predictions?

Posted on 2013-01-02
2
264 Views
Last Modified: 2016-02-18
Do I always need historical data to make a data mining prediction? Do you have any authoritative reference link on this?

If we don't always need the historical data, then would the following case be realistic for determining the prevailing value or a threshold?

Say Inputs: A, B, C, D, where: C = A/B
Predict: C

Since C is a computation and already exists, what would the Predicted C imply or mean in other words? Do you have an authoritative link on this?
0
Comment
Question by:rodqxo
  • 2
2 Comments
 
LVL 51

Accepted Solution

by:
Mark Wills earned 500 total points
Comment Utility
It depends on your data mining model...

Some models are based on historical trends, or need a quorum of data to represent an adequate population sample. For example, regression analysis.

Other data mining models are more disclosure and discovery based on relationships, called association. For example basket market analysis

But for predictions, we do need some kind of regression analysis, so yes, that would normally mean historical data.

Have you seen or walked through the tutorials ? http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/bb677206.aspx

There is also a reasonable albeit high level explanation of some techniques : http://www.dataminingtechniques.net/data-mining-tutorial/

There is a plethora of information out there - but I think an assumption of volume is not really disclosed as to how much (or more accurately how little is needed).

There are tools (like the graphs) and statistical measures (like confidence interval) that do help qualify the results, and obviously the bigger the sample, the greater the confidence of prediction.
0
 
LVL 51

Assisted Solution

by:Mark Wills
Mark Wills earned 500 total points
Comment Utility
Oh, and is SSAS / data mining you can use lift charts to measure : http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms175428.aspx

There is quite a bit in MSDN about Data Mining, trick is learning where the information is hidden (*sigh* typical MS).

For example, a discussion about Associations (your example) then http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms174916.aspx and check out the topics on the left...
0

Featured Post

Complete Microsoft Windows PC® & Mac Backup

Backup and recovery solutions to protect all your PCs & Mac– on-premises or in remote locations. Acronis backs up entire PC or Mac with patented reliable disk imaging technology and you will be able to restore workstations to a new, dissimilar hardware in minutes.

Join & Write a Comment

Everyone has problem when going to load data into Data warehouse (EDW). They all need to confirm that data quality is good but they don't no how to proceed. Microsoft has provided new task within SSIS 2008 called "Data Profiler Task". It solve th…
Slowly Changing Dimension Transformation component in data task flow is very useful for us to manage and control how data changes in SSIS.
This video shows how to set up a shell script to accept a positional parameter when called, pass that to a SQL script, accept the output from the statement back and then manipulate it in the Shell.
Viewers will learn how to use the SELECT statement in SQL and will be exposed to the many uses the SELECT statement has.

771 members asked questions and received personalized solutions in the past 7 days.

Join the community of 500,000 technology professionals and ask your questions.

Join & Ask a Question

Need Help in Real-Time?

Connect with top rated Experts

15 Experts available now in Live!

Get 1:1 Help Now