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jagguyFlag for Australia asked on

markov chain sequence

In  markov chain you have a transition matrix and initial state.

It is easy to work out the probability on the nth event but what about a sequence of events .

the 1st column .75 is prob a day is wet today given it was wet yesterday .
the 1st column .7 is prob a day is not wet given it was not wet yesterday .

 t= .75  .3
     .25  .7  

what is the probability of a at least 2 days being wet out of the next 3 if it was wet yesterday.

using a markov chain how do i do this?
Math / Science

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TommySzalapski

8/22/2022 - Mon
TommySzalapski

Start from the state of it was wet yesterday and then work out all the possible final states for the next 3 days (you should have 8 of them). Now find the paths that have 2 or more wet days and add up the probabilities.
ozo

P(W|W)*P(W|W)
+
P(D|W)*P(W|D)*P(W|W)
d-glitch

This is a three level tree with eight possible outcomes.
You care about four of them.
I started with Experts Exchange in 2004 and it's been a mainstay of my professional computing life since. It helped me launch a career as a programmer / Oracle data analyst
William Peck
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ozo

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jagguy

ok so what is the answer and the s0 matrix as it goes along?
TommySzalapski

You know that we can't just solve the whole problem for you. This is an academic question.

What do you have for it so far?