How will the last 3 weeks affect both parties mid-term re-elections?

Now that the US government passed a new bill to fund the government for a few more months and raise the debt ceiling, several hundred thousand people can return to work and we can go about our business. Coming across a poll today, I learned that the tea-party has lost a lot of its support and likability, which some attribute to Ted Cruz. So this got me thinking, with mid-term elections coming up next year, how will this affect all parties come roughly this time next year? Will people finally have had enough and vote out more republicans? or will democrats be seen as being not willing to negotiate and be ousted?

Being someone who is more in the center but leans more left than right when it comes to politics, I believe that most people will have forgotten about how close we came to a default and not a whole heck of a lot will change, although I do see more conservative seats being lost than rheir counterparts across the isle.
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Anthony RussoCommented:
I sit in the same place politically and see the same outcome. The gerrymandered districts will hold their conservatives but most of the ones that are actually up for contention will have a hard time staying in office.

I dont think it will be forgotten as I'm sure plenty of campaign money will be spent to remind voters over the next year what happened. Plus we will probably go through the same thing come January/February. Oh goody.
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tliottaCommented:
It's probably mostly like already described here. I'm pretty sure it's not going to be 'forgotten', but I don't see it having a huge voting effect. I suspect it's more that it's the kind of situation that will simply become thought of as the new way of doing things in the mind of the general public. If it gets to the same situation in a few months when it comes around again, fewer people will be as concerned as they were this time.

Rather, next time (or the time after) it might actually be forced to go to the next level. An actual default might come about.

If that happens, the reason is likely to be that (1) "Obamacare" still is law, (2) liberals/moderates have no intention of letting it go, (3) hard conservatives (Tea Party) have no intention of allowing it to survive and (4) President Obama is the actual hated target but "Obamacare" is the socially acceptable stand-in.

Even with passage of the latest funding bill, fully one-third of the House of Representatives voted against it. Campaign plans (I'm confident) are already being created to use this latest defeat of Tea Party objectives against other incumbents. The underlying theme might be something like "We came close; just a few more seats are needed. Join the revolt."

Done well, it could even work.

Replace a few moderate Republicans with more conservative ones, and replace a few more Democrats with even moderate Republicans, and a balance could be tipped.

I don't think that hard-line Tea Party supporters expected to take control of the government in just a couple election cycles. They're unlikely to give up just because they're not there yet. It seems plausible that it's time to double up efforts and to stay on the offensive.

And on the opposite side, the need is to portray the effort as a dangerous attack on the strength of the U.S.A. federal government. A minority group of near fanatics representing some fairly well defined geographical areas are trying to subvert the government against the majority. They need to be stopped. I can imagine at least one strategy and a 'dirty tricks' tactic to implement it that could work in today's world.

But who knows how the balance sits? It's usually some small percentage in the middle that shifts one way or the other. The opinions and feelings of the larger groups on either side don't seem to matter as much. Who can predict what that small middle group can be manipulated into thinking?

Tom
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leonstrykerCommented:
I think it will be mostly forgotten in a year, and if the ObamaCare website is not fixed in short order, it may help Republicans with the midterm elections.
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bergertimeCommented:
Agree with leon, it will be forgotten and the next crisis will come.  Remember the cliff before the debt ceiling, remember the crisis before that remember the cliff before that......
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bergertimeCommented:
Not sure it matters anymore, in fact it may get them votes considering if they had succeeded, millions of people wouldn't be losing their coverage.  Lets see millions lose it and 100,000 get it,  sounds like a good plan.  All the while knowingly lying about it.  It's really kinda sad, Dems have been saying for the last few years Repub are making up all these lies.  Who were the ones lying?
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bergertimeCommented:
"The low-end estimates are for 49 percent and 34 percent of small and large employer plans, respectively, to have relinquished grandfather status, and the high-end estimates are 80 percent and 64 percent, respectively."

From Health and human service Report to the White House.

Up to 80% of small business will have to change their plan.  This is from 2010, just wait till, by their estimate, over 100 million people find out the plans they have from their employer are no longer being offered because of the ACA.....wow.
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BigRatCommented:
As a foreigner I can't really comment on American politics, but I used to watch a program on (I think) NBC Europe called "Equal Time" with Mary Matelin and Jane Wallace, and I would be glad if the Tea-Party disappeared and you got back to discussing matters on real American values. High hope, perhaps?

I'm currently reading a biography on the British prime minister Lord Salisbury by his daughter Lady Gwendolen Cecil. When Robert Cecil first entered parlement a major issue was universal suffrage. He was, as a Tory, completely against it. In fact the "horrors" of the American system were presented as an example. Representatives for government, he said, should be elected by those who have an interest in government. That meant rate payers of a certain value or those whose incomes exceeded a certain amount. Great debates were held in the House of Commons on whether this should be three or seven pounds a year. Of course universal suffrage would mean that people would vote in those politicians who'd hand out government monies to all and sundry, creating mountains of debt, which would lead to the bankruptcy of the country.

It seems that it has just taken a little longer than Lord Salisbury expected.
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leonstrykerCommented:
As a foreigner I can't really comment on American politics, but I used to watch a program on (I think) NBC Europe called "Equal Time" with Mary Matelin and Jane Wallace, and I would be glad if the Tea-Party disappeared and you got back to discussing matters on real American values. High hope, perhaps?

As a American, I really can't comment on EU politics, but I used to travel over Europe and  and listen to people, and I would be glad if every Socialist in Europe disappeared and you could go back to discussing matters on real European values, as in the erosion and the decline of.
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