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Tech stock savant needs answers!

Posted on 2013-11-03
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Last Modified: 2014-01-25
Hi
I am doing okay on my stocks.
I followed Cramerica since 2005 and have gone from $5,000 to $19,000

Anyway, I have noticed the nice dividends I pile up every quarter.

I think I'd rather be a dividend dog now, than a quick buck Share trader.

I see there are decent dividend advice pages around, but is there the king of dividend advice pages / blogs somewhere ?

Thanks
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Question by:beavoid
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39627706
I see that by the time a stock has an EPS, earnings per share, > 100, it is too late to buy, cause the stock price is sky high.
Is there a blog, venue where people discuss these possibilities?

Thanks
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Expert Comment

by:aburr
ID: 39631589
"Is there a blog, venue where people discuss these possibilities?"
certainly there is such
BUT
not knowing who was writing, I would not trust any of them.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39631594
Dividends are usually begun when a company is large and they are no longer considered a growth stock. To replace the big gains in stock price they may very well begin paying a dividend to give shareholders a return of x%


For dividends:
Dividends provide certainty about the company's financial well-being. Dividends are also attractive for investors looking to secure current income.

The argument against dividends is based on the belief that a firm that reinvests funds (rather than paying them out as dividends) will increase the value of the firm as a whole and, consequently, increase the market value of the stock.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/011703.asp

-------------
Most tech stocks do not pay a dividend.

Here you go............
A place to share info and have discussion, mostly on dividend stocks, but including ETFs, CEFs, mutual funds, and other income producing investments. The overall goal being to build a growing income stream, portfolio growth being secondary. With an abundance of very intelligent and experienced posters, and no real functioning retirement board on SI, imho a good place for any retirement questions or concerns.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=56874
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39646876
dividend means you are paid back in more shares?
EPS earnings per share is paid back in $ money. - or is it simply the math of the money you made during the transaction per share?
TY
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Expert Comment

by:aburr
ID: 39646919
"dividend means you are paid back in more shares?"
dividends are money (cash) paid on each share you own.
Some but not all, companies allow you to purchase stock at cost with the dividend.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39647874
My account puts the dividends in my account on the pay date. I can re-invest them in more shares if I desire.
If you have some sort of pension or 401K you can talk to your advisor about having all your dividends re-invested in shares.

EPS = earnings per share.

If IBM who's stock is $184.40 at this minute. As an example IBM releases earnings of $4.23 per share, and that is the amount of profits they have after research and development cost, and all other expenses or one time charges or write downs. You the IBM shareholder gets none of the EPS.
The EPS will have been estimated by the analysts before they are released. If they expected IBM to earn $4.54 and they earn $4.23 the stock may very well go down. If they meet or exceed the $4.54 the stock may go up.

The only benefits you get from EPS would be:
a. stock price appreciation over a period of weeks, months, or years.
b. dividends if they pay one.
c. share re-purchase programs whereby IBM would buy back some of it's own shares. The reduction in the number of shares outstanding, in theory, makes the stock go up, because it makes the EPS to go up. If there are less shares due to the buyback then the S in the formula EPS is less and makes the E go up.
-----------------------
"EPS earnings per share is paid back in $ money. - or is it simply the math of the money you made during the transaction per share?"

What transactions do you refer to?


EPS are announced only 4 times a year.

Ask any other questions you have on this subject or any subject related to stock or stock options.
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39653377
I have negative EPS's one of my stocks. . . AXLS

What does negative mean? Doesn't sound good . . .columns first block, rows second block

 Fiscal Quarter            2013
(Fiscal Year)            2012
(Fiscal Year)            2011
(Fiscal Year)
                              
                              
March                     
   Revenue      $40,726(t)      $55,006(t)      $93,170(t)
   EPS      -0.08 (3/31/2013)      -0.09 (3/31/2012)      0.02 (3/31/2011)
   Dividends      N/A      N/A      N/A

?
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Expert Comment

by:aburr
ID: 39653601
"I have negative EPS's one of my stocks. . . AXLS

What does negative mean?"
It means the company lost money
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39653665
You need to look at the important data for AXLS.

I can not find that one on a U.S. Stock Exchange.

Is the symbol correct > AXLS  ?

What is that companies name and location?
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39653727
Sorry

aCLS

The   X in the name must have jumbled my mind's letters :)
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39653751
There is a ACLS and a ACLSX.

The ACLS is a small $2.18 stock......They have 48 million dollars in cash and debt of 15 million.
They just lost maybe 2-3 million in the recent quarter. They have enough cash to survive many more quarters. What is the reason you own a $2.18 stock that has not been $5.00 since maybe 2008?
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39654706
The EPS earnings per share were good. Many articles seemed promising.

Now they have sunk to negative. Does negative EPS mean I have to pay them? instead of them paying me?
Or is it just negative earnings?
fukc

Perhaps the articles I read were outdated?
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39654728
How many shares do you own and is the stock symbol ACLS or ACLSX?

You do not make or lose money based on their earnings, or lack of earnings.
Except....the stock price will reflect negative news.

If they had been earnings 25 cents a share each quarter and it was a $6.00 stock, then when their revenues and earnings began to decline, example 20 cents, then 12 cents and then negative you can be assured the market would have started lowering the stock price far below $6.00. ACLS is basically a penny stock and high risk. They have little cash, little revenues and no positive earnings. Maybe someone buys them for $4.50 a share.
---------------------------------------------
Amazon has no earnings. But their revenues are growing. It's $360 stock.
But, Amazon is growing and growing and spending their sales to get more sales. For now, the market is accepting that. At some point, if they can not show earnings that stock could go down 50% or alot more.
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39654733
Sry. ACLS
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39654736
1000
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39654741
Now they have sunk to negative. Does negative EPS mean I have to pay them? instead of them paying me?
Or is it just negative earnings?

You only lose money if the stock goes down because of negative earnings.
You don't pay them anything.

If they paid a dividend, which they do not it seems, as the company financials got worse they might suspend the dividend and you would not get that.
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39654749
nasdaq.com

say they pay a - $0.30 earnings per share

here
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39654794
That negative 30 cents per share is their earnings, or lack of earnings.
After they pay all their expenses out of their sales, they have nothing left over. They actually go in the hole 30 cents per share. They have about 109 million shares.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ACLS+Key+Statistics

So, last year they lost about 32 million dollars.

You only pay by the stock you bought going down, way down, maybe even bankrupt and down to zero.
You only are paid by the value of the stock going up or collecting a dividend if they pay one.

You could do a stock replacement if you are worried about ACLS.
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39654838
I'll see if I get something at the end of this quarter and consider my options
Thanks
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39654847
You won't get anything, the Yahoo Finance page tells you ACLS doesn't pay a dividend.
Such small companies do not pay dividends in general.

acls
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39654877
Okay, but why is it a non zero EPS ?
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39654909
If they have 109 million shares and:
A. earn 10 cents per share, they have 10.9 million dollars to put in the bank, use for acquisitions, pay a dividend, etc.
B. their sales minus expenses is exactly zero, then they did not make any profit and did not lose any either.
C. lose 10 cents a share then they lost 10.9 million dollars and if they keep that up too long they will go out of business, maybe bankrupt, and shareholders be wiped out.

Not saying ACLS will do that but they are losing money.
They have enough cash to maybe last one more year to try to turn it around.
Or maybe someone buys the company.

You could sell your shares and replace them with options, or hold your shares and hope they reverse their losses. Maybe they are a seasonal business and the loss this quarter was to be expected.

Any stock under $3.00 that is losing money is high risk.
AMD might be an exception.
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39654986
Thanks so much,

AMD seems interesting

Looking at its nasdaq summary page, it has - $.86 per share.

Earnings and dividends are not yet available on the summary page here

Does the fact that it has no earnings history mean it is new? unviable?

notice, however, that 3 ETF's think it is worth owning.
Surely that means something huge? I never noticed the ETF section on the nasdaq page.

If it is priced at $3.5,I could spring for 10,000 shares and do nicely if AMD's  EPS is above $1.00 per quarter.
How soon until the dividend / earnings pop in ? End of quarter?
Why were there none at the end of the last quarter?

Thanks
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39654995
I use Yahoo Finance. They have a headlines tab on the left to go back and review their last quarterly report.
You must be rich is you are willing and able to lose $35,000 on AMD or any stock.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39657964
Take a look at OCZ or NAVB or VRNG
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39658098
Thanks
Do you think they are trading stocks or best for earnings per share?
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39658166
All of them are high risk.
NAVB is a small promising biotech.
VRNG goes after patents.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39660006
Have you considered stock replacement on your ACLS?
Or covered calls against long stock and long calls?
That can give you monthly income similar to a dividend and the % on that stock would be close to 4% a month.
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39682735
Thanks
If I have 300 BRCD, will I ever see earnings, i.e. EPS earnings per share?

My exact listing is:
1000 ACLS
300 BRCD
100 ORCL
2000 SIRI

What about these others above? What earnings per share will I get at the end of this quarter? SIRI has been very good for quarterly earnings.

I have 1000 ACLS, nick, I dont quite understand what you are suggesting?
Is there any point in hoping ACLS will give me quarterly Earnings Per Share? SIRI has had reliable EPS.
Thanks
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39684438
OCZ declared bankruptcy the other day so that one is toast.
I do not know much about ACLS but if you have only 1000 shares then you can only lose about $2000.

BRCD announced their earnings this weeks and it was good enough to make the stock go up near 10%.

ACLS stock replacement would be to sell the stock and buy stock options on it.
And hold the options instead of the stock. Do you use options?
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39684507
Thanks

No, I haven't done options yet, just buy low, sell high. Are options payouts?
But, truthfully, I like quarterly earnings, e.g. payment per share. My 2000 SIRI has been doing some good things. If SIRI gives a > $1 EPS, I get a very nice wake up call.
I am not going to sell SIRI for a long while, I don't think.

Does BRCD do earnings / share ?
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39686038
Options are an investment tool you buy to replace the stock you wish to sell.
It's a way to protect profits and still make money if the stock goes up after you sold the shares.

BRCD is earnings money:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BRCD+Key+Statistics
45 cents the past year.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39689742
What price did you pay for your ACLS?
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39690429
bought 1000 shares at $2.26

it is now 2.23

It has an Earnings per share of - 0.08

Does a negative EPS mean I pay them, or lose money? or just a sucky stock?
Am I correct that it is losing money? Will I still get paid every quarter EPS, money per shares?
I want stocks that give me good quarterly payments. 2000 SIRI, 100 ORCL, 50 T are doing well for me.
What is the situation? U'r insights? I also have 300 BRCD

Thanks
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39690458
Whether they earn 8 cents or lose 8 cents has ZERO to do with your bank account or your money. All the earnings does is cause the stock to go up or down. Nothing else.
And such small companies don't pay a dividend.

Since you don't have any profits on it, you are losing 3 cents x 1000 shares or $30 then selling your stock and replacing it with stock options will not work for you on that stock.
Unless you need the $2,230 for something and you want to sell it and use a "stock option" in case the stock goes up alot after you sell your 1000 shares.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39690498
You won't get 1 single penny per quarter on any of those stocks, unless they pay a quarterly dividend.
-------------------------------------
Quarterly dividends are a waste of time and money trying to invest for dividends.

Here's why:
You have 100 Oracle. Oracle does pay a dividend of 48 cents per year or 12 cents per share. That's a whopping $48 in your pocket each year.
Oracle is $35.12. Would you rather have that $48 or have Oracle go up to $36.12?

The $1.00 rise in price over the next year is $100 for you in your account in the value of your shares. $1.00 up in stock price is better than the dividend.

Commissions, dividends and tax consequences of owning stocks are to be 100% avoided in my opinion.

Would you like to pay $2000 in taxes on stock gains?
No? Why not? It means your stocks went way, way up.

Why would a $7 commission cause you to not buy a stock because you think the $7 is too high? If a $7 commission is too high, the stock you are getting ready to buy is probably going to be a loser. Because you are more worried about the commission than whether the stock is good value.

Why would you buy a stock for a 10 cent per share per quarter dividend?
You should buy a stock because you think it will go up, and not whether there is a dividend or how much the commission was or whether you'll have to pay taxes on stock GAINS.

Dividends are usually paid on stocks that can not go up fast, like utilities, and retired people like to be safe with dividend paying stocks because they want to hold their  shares for 5-10 or more years.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39690516
You should start a new question just for Oracle.
I subscribe to a news service and here is what I just got in my mail box.
Ask a question about Oracle for an extensive conversation on that one stock.

ORCL: Bears target Oracle
Oracle is testing long-term highs over $35, and the bears are stepping in as earnings loom. Depth Charge shows the purchase of 17,700 December 34 puts for $0.40 to $0.45, with most of the contracts pricing at the top of that range.. all against open interest of 10,467 .. Total option volume is twice the daily average, with puts outnumbering calls by 16 to 1. ORCL, which reports earnings later this month (date still not set but probably before expiration), fell 0.70 percent to $35.04.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39690925
Earnings are supposed to drive stocks but not always.
Amazon puts their small profits back into sales and earn nothing each quarter and the stock is near $400.00.
Some say it is going to be cut in half when and if the market demands earnings.

Amazon has sales of close to $100 billion and brings none to the bottom line, but shareholders have been rewarded with 100% gains. You want stock gains not dividends.

The stocks you own, except Oracle, are very small companies and speculative. Maybe someone buys Brocade and Sirius Satellite and maybe not.

ACLS may find a partner, a buyer, make it on their own, or go out of business. Very small company with no profits.
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39691150
So, for the small triumphs I might make on my own now and then, infrequently, you think it is almost bothersome, with tax issues and other tedious needs, when a CD would do better? I'm not living in a cardboard box. I can sit, wait and see if those stocks do better than my purchase price?
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39691218
I have never owned a CD.
I use stocks and stock options. I sell weekly and monthly covered call options.

It's not bothersome really.
There are some well known phrases about all parts of the stock markets.
One is don't worry about selling your stock because you have profits, because you are worried how the gains will affect your taxes. Ideally we all want to pay taxes on stock gains. Why? It means we had stock gains.

I do not think whether the commission is $7.00 or $10.00. I have a set commission with my broker and I do not change to another one because their commissions save me $1.00 per trade. If $1 per trade is important to me, maybe I should not buy a stock.
My gains will easily cover the commission.

Maybe you are a long term holder and you really don't care if Oracle is $35 today and goes down to $25 next year and back to $40 the next year. if you are a long term holder then the ups and downs don't matter.

Let's look at long term holding on 2 of your stocks.
BRCD:
look at this chart since 2009.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BRCD+Basic+Chart&t=5y
The people who bought it in 2009 had losses for 4 years as the stock went down under $4.00. Just recently has it gotten back to near $9.00.
So, the long term holder of BRCD made $0.00 in 4 years. The quarterly earnings and the daily or weekly news about the market did not affect their investment. Unless they sold at $9 and bought much lower, or traded it short term.

ORCL:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ORCL&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
In late 2010 it was $30. It went up and down and up and down many times and was $30 in July of this year. So, those who held on to it the whole 3 years made no profits.

Stock options and other are alot of detail. Not that they are hard to use but they require detail to learn how to use them.

The supposedly smart money is bracing for Oracle to go down on their earnings this month. We'll see if their put options make money.
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39691737
Hi
If an option is a contract to buy or sell, does the person making the transaction or the transacted person benefit? Is it an option for me, or them?

Say I do an option on my 1000 ACLS, what could the likely possibilities be? How is it different from a limit order sell? Since ORCL is going down, is that one toast?

Thanks a lot
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39693206
If you buy a call option or a put option, you have the decision to make. You have 3 decisions, well many decisions.
a. what option to buy.
b. what month you wish to use as the expiration date.
c. if the stock has weekly options do you want to use weekly options.
d. what strike price will you choose.
e. what are you willing to pay for the option.
f. once you own one:
   1. do you hold the option until the last day or sell it before the last day.
   2. do you decide to "exercise" your option to buy or sell the stock.

One option contract represents 100 shares.
---------------------
No one knows if Oracle is going up or down. A very wealthy person bought some Oracle puts.
ORCL: Bears target Oracle
Oracle is testing long-term highs over $35, and the bears are stepping in as earnings loom. Depth Charge shows the purchase of 17,700 December 34 puts for $0.40 to $0.45, with most of the contracts pricing at the top of that range.. all against open interest of 10,467 .. Total option volume is twice the daily average, with puts outnumbering calls by 16 to 1. ORCL, which reports earnings later this month (date still not set but probably before expiration), fell 0.70 percent to $35.04.

17,700 x 100 = 1.77 million shares of Oracle. They are guessing, investing, predicting that Oracle may fall after their earnings are released on Dec. 17th.
-------------
On ACLS you have few choices using options.
You can sell your shares and replace the $2,230 worth of stock with 10 call options for Dec, Jan, Mar, or June. But, as those weeks and months go by the options will lose value if the stock does not go up.
The stock is $2.23.


 Would you like to make $370 on your ACLS in the next 13 days.

Please give a yes or no answer, and why.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39693212
By the way, $370 would be 370 / 2,230 = 16.59% in 13 days.
Like it?
Want to try?
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39694493
That sounds tempting

Nasdaq.com suggests it is targetted to go to $3.50 in a year  here

So, 1000*  $2.26, bought at $2260

And, 1000* $3.50 possible sell at $3500

Profit = 3500-2260 = $1240

Is that wildly speculative? > $370

Thanks.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39695773
If they are right and there are target prices on ALL stocks.
Then $3.50 would give you a 54% gain in 365 days.
Using covered call options you could make 16% in 13 days.

Do the math.

Is that so risky that you are worried to sell your stock at $2.50 and make 16% in 13 days?

You speak of dividends, the 16% would be like a dividend, money coming into your account, all of which is on paper. There are no profits at all until you actually sell.

Nasdaq dot com      may be right or wrong. No one knows. No one.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39696619
When you sell a covered call you are selling the right to someone else to buy your stock from you, before, or on, a certain date and at a certain price.
You decide the date and price.

Example that is real and can be placed by you today.
ACLS is $2.30
You can sell the December $2.50 call for 10 cents.
That's $100.00 you will be paid, to sell your stock at $2.50 on Dec. 20th.
It has moved up a few cents since the other day.

So, the % for you would be $2.50 - $2.30 = .20 + .10 = .30 x 1000 = $300 and that is 13%.

If the stock is not $2.50 or higher, you keep the $100 for the option you sold.
Then you can sell another one for January or just keep that $100 and let that be like a one time dividend of 10 cents per share.

Here are the risks and if you think clearly about it there are no real risk.
1. The stock is above $2.50 on Dec. 20th, then your stock sells at $2.50 and you keep the $100 from the sold option and you make 13% in the next 12 market days.
2. The stock is below $2.50 on Dec. 20th. You keep the stock and you keep the $100 and that lowers your breakeven from $2.26 to $2.16.

So, you bought it at $2.26 and it is $2.30 today. You have a 1.7% gain in (??) number of weeks, or months, or years of time that you have owned it.

If it took you many weeks or months to make that 1.7% then what is the harm in being paid 13% in 12 days to sell you stock at $2.50 when you only paid $2.26?

One other risk is this. The stock closes Dec. at $5.00. Sorry, your shares will sell for $2.50. You were paid 10 cents per share by someone who was predicting, or hoping, that the stock would be above $2.60 by Dec. 20th. That is their breakeven.

I've sold covered calls and they expire and I keep the income month after month.
I've sold covered calls and the stock was way above the option strike price.

I see little risk for you to "play around" with options and ACLS for this month, and maybe other months to see how they work and learn how they work.

If you are worried the stock will be way above $2.50 by Dec. 20th and leaving those gains on the table would concern you then totally avoid covered calls.
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39700173
Hi
Thanks

What do you mean . . . covered calls . . keep the income month after month. Is something compounding? I'm very intrigued by the month after month! Can ACLS do it?

Reading Wikipedia makes me think that options may be more powerful than buy low sell high?
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39700902
You can use a covered call on ACLS the way described above. But, time is running out on the December options. I just looked and you can still get 10 cents per share for the Dec. $2.50 call option. It's called covered because you have shares "to cover" the need for you to sell the stock at $2.50 if the stock is $2.50 or more on Dec. 20th.
The stock is back down to $2.26 and you may or may not be able to get 10 cents if you act today, now, place the trade to sell the option.

Your account is not a margin account I assume. If you sold the option the $100, less the commission, would sit in the cash side of your account. You could withdraw it based on your brokers withdrawal rules. I leave option sales in my account to give me more ability to buy stocks or options.

What is the risk to you?
You'd have to sell the stock at $2.50 when you paid $2.26.
The only real risk is the stock is above $2.50 on Dec. 20th, takes off to the moon and you never get to own it again at less than $2.50.

But that risk is really not dooms day because you would have made 13-15% on your investment in that stock.

How long have you owned it and is your account approved for selling covered calls?
Call and find out.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39701587
You almost lost the ability to do that for Dec. The stock went down a few cents and the option was 0 - .10 meaning you might get 5 cents but not 10 cents.
Now the stock is back up to 2.29 and the spread on the option is .05 - .15 and you might get the 10 cents by placing the limit order at 10 cents.
There is only 2 weeks to go so the option will lose value fast if the stock sits or drops a few pennies. The time to sell the Dec. 2.50 would be now, today at a limit of 10 cents.

Worst case: the stock is over $2.50 Dec. 20th, it never goes back down below $2.50 for you to buy it back, and in 5 years it's a $100 stock. But, you would have made 15% for the amount of time you held it.
You could buy another 1000 if you like the stock and sell a covered call on that to see how they work, but then you are doubling down on a stock that is very high risk. They are losing money every quarter and as some point could run out of cash and go down to zero.
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39704340
Thanks

That feels risky.
Is there an easy way to get the date of the next earnings announcement / payout for any stock, and its expected value per share?
I use nasdaq.com and scottrade
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nickg5 earned 500 total points
ID: 39704665
So it is too risky for you to sell your ACLS for $2.60 when you paid $2.26?
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Go here:
http://www.earningswhisper.com/stocks.asp?symbol=acls

ACLS reports their quarterly results on February 5th and that is not a confirmed date right now. They are expected to report a gain of 1 cents per share.

I use that website and Yahoo Finance. That gives me everything I need.
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39704971
Fantastic link.

SO, for ACLS, earnings wont happen until February,

and only at $ 0.01 (consensus estimate - earnings prediction page - PAGE THAT I WAS HOPING FOR, THANKS - estimate by who? not clowns, I hope - crowd opinion can't be too reliable? biased? not if 1000's opinions )
Thats only 1000 * $ 0.01
= $10 per quarter, which is laughable. Would barely cover brokerage fees for a trade ( to put in trading perspective )
ACLS has gone down, so $2.60 would have been good. It's a shame ACLS has pathetic earnings. Do you have a plan for all 1000 shares?

SIRI has also lost steam, but I'll keep it. If Sirius does a buyback, could I put in a high sell to hope for a winner? Could ACLS do the same?

How can one take advantage of buyback possibilities?
Is there no hope for ACLS, tho? or is it beyond hope?

Thanks
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39704997
That is why you should sell the Dec. $2.50 covered call on ACLS.
Any more delays and you won't get 10 cents and it won't be worth it to get .05.
And then sell a January after that because their earnings are after the Jan. options expire.

The earnings estimates and whisper numbers are everywhere. They are not made up, they are averages from all the analysts that cover the stock, and they use the consensus, and for ACLS it is 1 cent.

------------------------
ACLS has gone down, so $2.60 would have been good. It's a shame ACLS has pathetic earnings. Do you have a plan for all 1000 shares?

.............I'd sell the Dec. $2.50 call for 10 cents and I'd have done it last week.

It's a simple question with no risk.
Would you like to make 15% on your ACLS investment in the next 2 weeks?
Yes, then do it, or no you are concerned or scared to sell the stock for $2.50.
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How long have you owned it?
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by:nickg5
ID: 39705002
ACLS has gone down, so $2.60 would have been good.

Would have?

Sell the $2.50 Dec call on Monday 9:30am for 10 cents and you might get $2.60 for your 1000 shares.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39705045
You should be able to go to your ScottTrade account online and place a day order to sell to open 10 of the Dec. $2.50 calls for a limit of 10 cents.
It might get filled at 9:30am.

If you think selling the stock on Dec. 20th for $2.50 and being paid $100 to do it, is a mistake or a risk because you think the stock is a home run then don't sell covered calls. They are conservative and used in many cases as income. You may get 10 cents for the Dec $2.50 and can sell a Jan. $2.50 call on or after Dec. 23rd.

I do day trades. If I bought ACLS for $2.26 I'd easily desire to sell for $2.50 in 2 weeks.
Nice 15% gain.
If it goes to $10 well, I should have just held the stock but no one knows what the stock will do in the future. And with the Dec. $2.50 call we are not talking the future we are talking 2 weeks. Then re-evaluate and consider buying it back if it falls back under $2.50.

And if you are concerned about the size of the commissions then consider CD's or mutual funds where you don't pay commissions.
If I buy ACLS or any stock, my commission would be $7.95.
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by:nickg5
ID: 39705052
So, for ACLS, earnings wont happen until February and only at $ 0.01
Thats only 1000 * $ 0.01
= $10 per quarter, which is laughable.

..............You are mis-interpeting the 1 cent per share.
It's not $10 per quarter. It's zero per quarter.
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by:nickg5
ID: 39705063
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=ACLS+Analyst+Estimates

One analyst follows ACLS.
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Wall Street analysts are looking for a 58% jump in sales next year to more than $312 million and expect that ACLS will earn $0.25 a share.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/little-known-chip-stock-may-130000995.html
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39705064
On what date in time did you buy ACLS?

That is a very important question.
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39705255
thx

11/6/2013      11/12/2013      ACLS              BOUGHT 1000 SHARES OF ACLS AT $2.2699      ($7.00)      $0.00      ($2,276.90)      


$7.00 is the transaction fee

month ago
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39706074
Then you have owned it right near one month and you paid 2.26 and it is near 2.26
so that makes selling the covered call seem even more attractive.

If you sold it for $2.50 + the 10 cents for the options = $2.60 = 15% since you owned it or 50 days since the option expires Dec. 20th.

15% in 50 days = an annualized gain of 109.5% (365 / 50 = 7.3 x 15% = 109.5%)
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by:nickg5
ID: 39707223
ACLS traded as low as $2.10. I saw no news but it is not a heavily followed stock. And large trades (number of shares) can move this type stock up or down fast.
Too late to sell a $2.50 call for December unless the stock shoots up to $2.30-$2.35 in a hurry.

So, with the decline in the stock, and assuming, though maybe wrongly, the stock does not look like it will be above $2.50 on Dec. 20th. If not then taking the $100 from the sale of the covered call option would be profit and would have lowered your cost basis to $2.16.

I did read a story on SA that they thought BRCD could double in 2014 or be acquired.

You only have 100 Oracle so if it goes down to $27-$30 you really have no significant losses. Losing $500-$800 on a stock that goes down 14-22% ($35 to $27-$30) is not a big loss. It is in % terms but not dollar value.
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39725744
Now that GOOG is back up to giant weight,

how long until people get bored and want to sell?

Every time it happens, I make the mistake of not loading up when it is bottomed out. When it bottoms out again, it must skyrocket again because it is such a moneymaker.

Wil this GOOG cycle ever end its repetition?

thx

Axcelis just had a brief spike. How will it change earnings? February payout.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39726450
There is no payout at all on ACLS.
The only thing that will happen is the earnings will be positive or negative. And the stock may go up or down. Nothing else can happen, unless they announce a dividend or announce they are going bankrupt, or a partnership with another company, or they are being sold to another company. Those are about the only things that can happen in February.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39726891
Oracle is down $2 per share this month only.
About two weeks ago a website suggested buying the $34 Oracle puts and they have turned out to be right. The earnings are today and investors should prepare for a possible downside move.
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39727849
Oracle out with earnings. Hit the whisper number, revenues beat a little.
Declared a 12 cent quarterly dividend.

That is why you should not think or worry about dividends, you, me, anybody.

It's going to be $12.00 in your account.
Wouldn't you rather see management cause the stock to go up 50 cents per quarter?
That's $50 per quarter.

The stock is down about 2% from the close so the stock is waiting on 3rd Q guidance on the 5pm conference call. So the dividend is gone in a dropping stock price.
Weak guidance for the 3rd Q and the stock goes lower.
---------------------------------------------------------
I opened a "trade" on Oracle. Short 300 shares and buy the April $33 call options. Alot of details and conversation for another topic from the one you asked about.
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Author Comment

by:beavoid
ID: 39728122
Ok thanks

can you only short stocks you own?
Why does it make money?
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Expert Comment

by:nickg5
ID: 39728128
Shorting is the opposite of buying. You want the stock to go down.
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