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How to Determine my web site hosting needs - Which ISP? How much server space? etc.

I'm setting up a professional networking membership site that will be accepting payments for joining .  Initially, there will be no live chats/webinars or streaming video but there will be on-line newsletters, links and blogs.  
-.  How do I plan/anticipate how much server power I need to run this site?  

-. Should I use Azure? Amazon Web services?  1and1? Go Daddy?

-.  If I have 10,000 paid members, should I plan for a worst-case scenario of 8,000 of them hitting my site at the same time?

-.  How do I plan my hosting needs?

-. At this stage of my business planning cycle, I'd appreciate any advice you have.
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