We had a safety meeting this morning where a gentlemen said that he is having his third grandson after his son had a vasectomy and his son's wife had her tubes tied. A quick search says that 1/100 vasectomies will fail and 5/1000 Tubal Ligations will fail.
The question is, how do you combine the probabilites. An explanation would be awesome because I am deemed with coming up with an answer and explanation. Great...
If every couple who can conceive will conceive, then the probability would be 1/100 * 1/200, or .005%.
But that is only if the vasectomy and ligation are the only factors that would prevent conception.
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Ah, but don't forget that only 90% of couples (fertile and having regular intercourse) will be expecting a child after a year without contraception - so 0.00005 x .9 = .000045
1 dice toss has a 1 in 6 chance of showing 1 dot 1/6
tossing 2 dice... both resulting in 1 is 1/6 * 1/6 or 1/36 - one out of 36 throws on average...
So 1/100 * 5/1000 would be 5/100000 or 5 out of every 100000 situations where both scenarios exists... Vas and tubes tied as couple exists.
That's my take...