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Simple Calculation for Value of Availablity

I'm trying to put together a simple calculation for Availability, comparing Current State to Future State.  Here's my mathematical challenge.  How do I calculate the cost of a lack of availability in the model attached?  I'm using the reciprocal of Uptime and the probability of failure against the average cost of a failure.  Is this acceptable or correct?

Thank you for taking a look and commenting in advance.

B.
Availability.xlsm
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David L. Hansen
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Let's back up a bit here.

It appears that you want to do some statistical analysis using probabilities for "up-time" and "down-time". Is this for server availability (not that the subject is all that important but it would give us more context for the conversation)? Also, there isn't any time-frame shown in the file you provided. Are we looking at uptime per month? per year? or some other time-frame? And what do you want to include in the costs (ie. loss of sales? Reputation? Customer payments? Insurance claims?)?

Let's look at the broader picture, specify some boundaries and the final goal (are there several follow-on questions or is this like homework where you just need one answer?).
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David,

Thanks for the reply!  I spent a good part of the day working the math on this and while it was fairly simple and straight forward, I had to get comfortable with the Utility/Energy Industry.  So I've attached the latest.  See what you can do to improve on it.  My original question, by the end of the day today.... actually seemed way too broad.

I look forward to your response.  I'm in the Middle East right now but will pick up a reply in the morning.

Best regards,
B.
Availabilityv2.xlsm
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David L. Hansen
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David,

Thanks for the help!   I think this gives me a good first start.

B.