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False positives will dominate until the disease prevalence exceeds 1% of the population. "
dglitch is correct. I was making some "reasonable" assumptions. But there are even more difficulties. The problem is a standard one emphasizing the often overlooked difficulty of the false negatives. Here the distinction is not made clear. Is there only one test? if so we are missing 1% of the population, etc

In any case a lot of information about this type of problem can be found at the link
False Positives and False Negatives  Math is Fun
www.mathsisfun.com/data/probabilityfalsenegativespositives.html
Maths Is Fun
False Positives and False Negatives. Test Says "Yes" ... or does it? When you have a test that can say "Yes" or "No" (such as a medical test), you have to think:.