How do I figure out how much database is expected to grow?

bfuchs
bfuchs used Ask the Experts™
on
Hi Experts,

I have a database that did grow monthly the following in MB
Size
3330
3383
3426
3468
3523
3602
3686
3759
What is the way to calculate the expected growth for the next few months?
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DatabaseMX (Joe Anderson - Microsoft Access MVP)Database Architect / Application Developer
Top Expert 2007

Commented:
Is this an Access mdb or accdb ?
eyeball it. The answer is 3800
-
there are many more "precise" ways of looking at it.
1.  Take an average
2.  find the slope and add to the last point.
3.  fit a second degree curve to the points.

How important is the answer? How much money (time) do you want to spend to get an answer?
but 3800 is quick and probably better than any more sophisticated way
Hi,

the simplest way is to use Excel for that. Copy the values into a range of cells, mark them all, use the black cross at the right bottom corner and drag it to the next cells. Excel tries to find a rule for the values to calculate the next values and insert them. In your example the next value would be 3795, then 3856, 3916 and so on.
May not be extreme exact, but always worth a try.

Cheers,

Christian
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You might want to consider whether there are going to be any changes  in working practices. New employees hired, big sakes promotion, new direction of work,  or a new feed of data now someone has decided that text stores well and perhaps they could store pictures.
Make an estimate by looking at the monthly growth and then double it to add a safety margin. Storage is becoming cheaper all the time so aim for the highest you can afford if you decide to increase it.
" big Sales promotion
"big Sales promotion": what if they sell sake?

Are the numbers you provided the size of the database each month or the increase in size from the previous month?
Saw the typoo and tried to change it but the edit function was broken.
Scott PletcherSenior DBA
Most Valuable Expert 2018
Top Expert 2014

Commented:
At a base level, that's primarily a math q, and many math folks could give you very detailed answers on trending, stat analysis, etc..

In a db context, that's too small to spend that much time worrying about.  I think this is related to your SQL Express q, and I think I might've taken care of that now too :-).

Commented:
you can try  Bitsqueezer suggestion : "Excel" chart to review and analyze based on your processes, and business specifics

more:

Building a simple forecast solution on SQL Server by Terry Choo
http://terrychoo.com/forecast/

Forecasting growth
http://searchsqlserver.techtarget.com/feature/Forecasting-growth
Hi Experts,

So far I tested bisqueezers suggestion and seems to work, would someone know whats the calculation behind it?
(the links provided are way to complicated for me to follow..)

Thanks,
Ben
Excel looks like it simply takes the difference between the first and last values and divides by the number of values to get an average difference then adds this on for each extra row you drag to. Clever, but will give a straight line every time. It won't see an increasing progression and extrapolate a curve.
Commented:
you need to monitor vs activities
and if you need "worry free" environment for some time-
allocate for this DB 50Gb storage extra space  (data, but trans log you need to check -. your real numbers can be smaller if e.g. you have Full recovery DB without long time trans log..)


about calculation:

try AVG

and
STDEV t-sql function
https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/sql/t-sql/functions/stdev-transact-sql
Returns the statistical standard deviation of all values in the specified expression.


more
https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/sql/t-sql/functions/aggregate-functions-transact-sql
Is there any database maintenance being done? What purging happens, on what schedule? Are reorgs done? (Does any maintenance reflect in the given figures?) Was the initial size "3330" MB, or is that only the oldest size known?
Hi Experts,
fyi- what I'm concerned re the DB see https://www.experts-exchange.com/questions/29013683/Database-maintenance.html?anchor=a42079051¬ificationFollowed=186938705#a42079051
Re the logic, I see its not something simple I can figure out just by doing some plus & minuses, so I guess will stick with what excel is giving w/o looking into the details..
on what schedule?
We have a daily backup scheduled.
or is that only the oldest size known?
Yes, this is the case.

Thanks,
Ben
Thank you very much my experts!

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