How do I figure out how much database is expected to grow?

Hi Experts,

I have a database that did grow monthly the following in MB
Size
3330
3383
3426
3468
3523
3602
3686
3759
What is the way to calculate the expected growth for the next few months?
LVL 6
bfuchsAsked:
Who is Participating?
I wear a lot of hats...

"The solutions and answers provided on Experts Exchange have been extremely helpful to me over the last few years. I wear a lot of hats - Developer, Database Administrator, Help Desk, etc., so I know a lot of things but not a lot about one thing. Experts Exchange gives me answers from people who do know a lot about one thing, in a easy to use platform." -Todd S.

DatabaseMX (Joe Anderson - Microsoft Access MVP)Database Architect / Systems AnalystCommented:
Is this an Access mdb or accdb ?
aburrCommented:
eyeball it. The answer is 3800
-
there are many more "precise" ways of looking at it.
1.  Take an average
2.  find the slope and add to the last point.
3.  fit a second degree curve to the points.

How important is the answer? How much money (time) do you want to spend to get an answer?
but 3800 is quick and probably better than any more sophisticated way
BitsqueezerCommented:
Hi,

the simplest way is to use Excel for that. Copy the values into a range of cells, mark them all, use the black cross at the right bottom corner and drag it to the next cells. Excel tries to find a rule for the values to calculate the next values and insert them. In your example the next value would be 3795, then 3856, 3916 and so on.
May not be extreme exact, but always worth a try.

Cheers,

Christian

Experts Exchange Solution brought to you by

Your issues matter to us.

Facing a tech roadblock? Get the help and guidance you need from experienced professionals who care. Ask your question anytime, anywhere, with no hassle.

Start your 7-day free trial
Active Protection takes the fight to cryptojacking

While there were several headline-grabbing ransomware attacks during in 2017, another big threat started appearing at the same time that didn’t get the same coverage – illicit cryptomining.

LEARN MORE
Enabbar OcapCommented:
You might want to consider whether there are going to be any changes  in working practices. New employees hired, big sakes promotion, new direction of work,  or a new feed of data now someone has decided that text stores well and perhaps they could store pictures.
Make an estimate by looking at the monthly growth and then double it to add a safety margin. Storage is becoming cheaper all the time so aim for the highest you can afford if you decide to increase it.
Enabbar OcapCommented:
" big Sales promotion
CompProbSolvCommented:
"big Sales promotion": what if they sell sake?

Are the numbers you provided the size of the database each month or the increase in size from the previous month?
Enabbar OcapCommented:
Saw the typoo and tried to change it but the edit function was broken.
Scott PletcherSenior DBACommented:
At a base level, that's primarily a math q, and many math folks could give you very detailed answers on trending, stat analysis, etc..

In a db context, that's too small to spend that much time worrying about.  I think this is related to your SQL Express q, and I think I might've taken care of that now too :-).
EugeneZ ZhitomirskySQL SERVER EXPERTCommented:
you can try  Bitsqueezer suggestion : "Excel" chart to review and analyze based on your processes, and business specifics

more:

Building a simple forecast solution on SQL Server by Terry Choo
http://terrychoo.com/forecast/

Forecasting growth
http://searchsqlserver.techtarget.com/feature/Forecasting-growth
bfuchsAuthor Commented:
Hi Experts,

So far I tested bisqueezers suggestion and seems to work, would someone know whats the calculation behind it?
(the links provided are way to complicated for me to follow..)

Thanks,
Ben
Enabbar OcapCommented:
Excel looks like it simply takes the difference between the first and last values and divides by the number of values to get an average difference then adds this on for each extra row you drag to. Clever, but will give a straight line every time. It won't see an increasing progression and extrapolate a curve.
EugeneZ ZhitomirskySQL SERVER EXPERTCommented:
you need to monitor vs activities
and if you need "worry free" environment for some time-
allocate for this DB 50Gb storage extra space  (data, but trans log you need to check -. your real numbers can be smaller if e.g. you have Full recovery DB without long time trans log..)


about calculation:

try AVG

and
STDEV t-sql function
https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/sql/t-sql/functions/stdev-transact-sql
Returns the statistical standard deviation of all values in the specified expression.


more
https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/sql/t-sql/functions/aggregate-functions-transact-sql
Member_2_276102Commented:
Is there any database maintenance being done? What purging happens, on what schedule? Are reorgs done? (Does any maintenance reflect in the given figures?) Was the initial size "3330" MB, or is that only the oldest size known?
bfuchsAuthor Commented:
Hi Experts,
fyi- what I'm concerned re the DB see https://www.experts-exchange.com/questions/29013683/Database-maintenance.html?anchor=a42079051¬ificationFollowed=186938705#a42079051
Re the logic, I see its not something simple I can figure out just by doing some plus & minuses, so I guess will stick with what excel is giving w/o looking into the details..
on what schedule?
We have a daily backup scheduled.
or is that only the oldest size known?
Yes, this is the case.

Thanks,
Ben
bfuchsAuthor Commented:
Thank you very much my experts!
It's more than this solution.Get answers and train to solve all your tech problems - anytime, anywhere.Try it for free Edge Out The Competitionfor your dream job with proven skills and certifications.Get started today Stand Outas the employee with proven skills.Start learning today for free Move Your Career Forwardwith certification training in the latest technologies.Start your trial today
Databases

From novice to tech pro — start learning today.