- Miscellaneous
how will the coronavirus impact the U.S. if it spreads across all states?
Hello and Good Afternoon Everyone,
With the media attention that the coronavirus has been given lately, it does pose an important question. What impact upon the U.S. will it have if it causes factories to shut down? I am sure it is already having a negative impact on the economy, especially with respect to air and sea travel across countries. But, I am wondering what the worst-case scenario would be given what we know about the coronavirus.
Thanks
George
With the media attention that the coronavirus has been given lately, it does pose an important question. What impact upon the U.S. will it have if it causes factories to shut down? I am sure it is already having a negative impact on the economy, especially with respect to air and sea travel across countries. But, I am wondering what the worst-case scenario would be given what we know about the coronavirus.
Thanks
George
The worst case
Everybody gets it
The death rate is about 8% so our population is reduced a bit.
Your guess as to what happens then is as good (or better) then mine
Everybody gets it
The death rate is about 8% so our population is reduced a bit.
Your guess as to what happens then is as good (or better) then mine
I heard that mortality rate estimates range between 0.5% and about 4%, so 8% seems a bit high. However, it varies by age, as you can see here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
As you can see from the data at the above link, it's very dangerous to older people, with a mortality rate of above 14% for 80+yr olds.
Keep in mind that depending on the number of people that are asymptomatic (ie don't have symptoms) the real mortality rate may be lower.
I expect widespread disruption for the next approx 12-24 months, while it makes its way around, until a vaccine becomes widely available (or until the vast majority of people have had it).
the mortality rate depends on the age, fotr less than 40-50years old it is <0.5% and goes up to about 18 % for more than 80 years old
look here : https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
look here : https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
I think corona virus is not more dangerous than other common flu with cough, fever, headache and is now more an hysteria given by social networks and internet - not that I mad specialist, but many doctors say so, proved by the fact that children up to 9 have not been affected and only older people over 60 with other diseases had hard times down to death.
Why no one says how many people die due to normal flu or other deases, if you want contagious? Because a forced vaccine will bring a lot of profit.
Why no one says how many people die due to normal flu or other deases, if you want contagious? Because a forced vaccine will bring a lot of profit.
Airline stocks are way down as many cancel flights to and from those countries with the highest number of cases: China, Iran, Korea. Korea is interesting since we have 32,000 military there. If and when one of them gets the virus will it spread throughout those troops or they will all be quarantined.
Empty seats on airplanes and other travel is a part of the economy. People may delay travel but essentially the empty seats will never recover the financial losses to the airlines.
If and when the virus peaks in China then we can better see how long it may take for it to be contained in other countries.
There is talk in some US cities about being ready to close schools, close businesses, cancel events expected to have over 5000 participants.
Things has worsened overnight. Now there is a case in NYC. Another died in Washington.
Other countries are testing 10,000 people a day. The USA testing very few. When there are cases in every state the economy will suffer. People will hunker down in their homes and don't go to places as they would have.
Bill Gates thinks the virus feels like the once a century pandemic.
There is talk today of the NCAA basketball tournament being cancelled or let the teams play in empty arenas. This type of thing directly affects the economy. I read an article about three possible scenarios on how it would affect the economy. Two would lower GDP and the worst case the economy goes into an economic recession.
People can panic when the stock market goes down. They feel less rich and hold their cash and don't go out and spend it on non essentials. Companies begin accumulating inventory they would have sold.
Just last night the DOW futures traded in a 1000 point range. Now here at 8am they are at -75
Up over 400, then down 400, the market futures are quite volatile trying to access the damage where the market just went down 12% last week.
The FED meets March 17-18 but people think they may lower interested rates by 25 or 50 basis points before their scheduled meeting. They have limited tools for a recession so there are things they can do though they don't want to because they know the effects could be more psychological then actual. People feel better and feel more wealthy when the markets go up. That can all effect consumer spending and the US consumer is what holds the economy together. As G. Adami on CNBC says US consumers spend. That is the one thing the economy can count on. They spend their money. When they stop spending then........... They are propping the economy up.
I'm surprised that there are not cases in Africa and South America. In Africa they suffer from lack of medical care and I think the virus could spread like wild fire in South America and Africa.
CNBC reports that March 18 at 2pm the FED is expected to lower interest rates by 0.50% and the chances of that is running at 94%.
Empty seats on airplanes and other travel is a part of the economy. People may delay travel but essentially the empty seats will never recover the financial losses to the airlines.
If and when the virus peaks in China then we can better see how long it may take for it to be contained in other countries.
There is talk in some US cities about being ready to close schools, close businesses, cancel events expected to have over 5000 participants.
Things has worsened overnight. Now there is a case in NYC. Another died in Washington.
Other countries are testing 10,000 people a day. The USA testing very few. When there are cases in every state the economy will suffer. People will hunker down in their homes and don't go to places as they would have.
Bill Gates thinks the virus feels like the once a century pandemic.
There is talk today of the NCAA basketball tournament being cancelled or let the teams play in empty arenas. This type of thing directly affects the economy. I read an article about three possible scenarios on how it would affect the economy. Two would lower GDP and the worst case the economy goes into an economic recession.
People can panic when the stock market goes down. They feel less rich and hold their cash and don't go out and spend it on non essentials. Companies begin accumulating inventory they would have sold.
Just last night the DOW futures traded in a 1000 point range. Now here at 8am they are at -75
Up over 400, then down 400, the market futures are quite volatile trying to access the damage where the market just went down 12% last week.
The FED meets March 17-18 but people think they may lower interested rates by 25 or 50 basis points before their scheduled meeting. They have limited tools for a recession so there are things they can do though they don't want to because they know the effects could be more psychological then actual. People feel better and feel more wealthy when the markets go up. That can all effect consumer spending and the US consumer is what holds the economy together. As G. Adami on CNBC says US consumers spend. That is the one thing the economy can count on. They spend their money. When they stop spending then........... They are propping the economy up.
I'm surprised that there are not cases in Africa and South America. In Africa they suffer from lack of medical care and I think the virus could spread like wild fire in South America and Africa.
CNBC reports that March 18 at 2pm the FED is expected to lower interest rates by 0.50% and the chances of that is running at 94%.
The average, 10-year mortality rate for flu using CDC data and found it was 0.1% https://khn.org/news/fact-check-coronavirus-homeland-security-chief-flu-mortality-rate/
Researchers currently think that between five and 40 coronavirus cases in 1,000 will result in death, with a best guess of nine in 1,000 or about 1%.
So it is 10x the influenza rate. Getting exact figures is very difficult as the mild cases are underreported. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743
This is tiny compared to SARS mortality rate in 2003. The case-fatality ratio of SARS is estimated to range from 0% to more than 50% depending on the age group affected, with an overall CFR estimate of approximately 15%.ii Using a non-parametric survival analysis estimated from interval-censored data, which provides an unbiased estimation of case-fatality, WHO estimated a crude CFR of 14% in Singapore
https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf
Right now we are in the containment phase. It is estimated that it will take more than 1 year for a vaccine to be generally available from the time a possible vaccine is found.
there are several influenza virus strains floating around the world and the flu vaccine that is released is the researchers best guess as to which strain will be this years variety.
It is my opinion that the FED lowering the interest rate is a non starter for the following reasons:
a) any change in the rate takes a long time to actually reflect on the economy (primary reasoning)
b) the economic chaos we are seeing now is an external factor that really doesn't reflect the state of the economy
c) we are a global economy and the actions of any one country won't affect it worldwide.
Like SARS the Corona Virus will only be a short term problem. The last major recession was caused by a systematic problem in the mortgage industry. This was fixed partially in the last administration but the fixes have been undermined in the current administration. Also the Consumer Protection Acts have been gutted to be almost meaningless.
Due to the over-use of antibiotics we are almost in the post-antibiotic world which will have even farther reaching problems as bacteria becomes more and more antibiotic resistant. For the people that use antibiotic cleansers on a regular basis I feel they are using a product with false expectations. They also kill both the good and the bad bacteria. Yes, there is good bacteria on and inside your body. You can't process food without bacteria.
Right now it is taking 3x longer to get items from a Chinese warehouse to North America. This will only get worse as factory production will plummet in China, both due to workforce staying away and from a raw material standpoint.
Right now the airline and hospitality industry is getting hurt the most. Major conferences are being cancelled. I can foresee lack of inventory of items produced in China in the short term. Some people have said that this will be a boon to the onshore manufacturing industry. I don't agree. The amount of time required to get any plant running will be longer than this outbreak will be minimized. This could cause even larger problems in the long run.
The stock markets react strongly negativity to uncertainty. I've actually seen stocks increase in value when the 'bad news' be confirmed and not be as bad as anticipated or to be as anticipated. They will rebound as this is only a short term problem. If you own mutual funds in the short term you will be hurt but long term you will be just fine. The markets will correct once the uncertainty has passed.
Researchers currently think that between five and 40 coronavirus cases in 1,000 will result in death, with a best guess of nine in 1,000 or about 1%.
So it is 10x the influenza rate. Getting exact figures is very difficult as the mild cases are underreported. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743
This is tiny compared to SARS mortality rate in 2003. The case-fatality ratio of SARS is estimated to range from 0% to more than 50% depending on the age group affected, with an overall CFR estimate of approximately 15%.ii Using a non-parametric survival analysis estimated from interval-censored data, which provides an unbiased estimation of case-fatality, WHO estimated a crude CFR of 14% in Singapore
https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf
Right now we are in the containment phase. It is estimated that it will take more than 1 year for a vaccine to be generally available from the time a possible vaccine is found.
there are several influenza virus strains floating around the world and the flu vaccine that is released is the researchers best guess as to which strain will be this years variety.
It is my opinion that the FED lowering the interest rate is a non starter for the following reasons:
a) any change in the rate takes a long time to actually reflect on the economy (primary reasoning)
b) the economic chaos we are seeing now is an external factor that really doesn't reflect the state of the economy
c) we are a global economy and the actions of any one country won't affect it worldwide.
Like SARS the Corona Virus will only be a short term problem. The last major recession was caused by a systematic problem in the mortgage industry. This was fixed partially in the last administration but the fixes have been undermined in the current administration. Also the Consumer Protection Acts have been gutted to be almost meaningless.
Due to the over-use of antibiotics we are almost in the post-antibiotic world which will have even farther reaching problems as bacteria becomes more and more antibiotic resistant. For the people that use antibiotic cleansers on a regular basis I feel they are using a product with false expectations. They also kill both the good and the bad bacteria. Yes, there is good bacteria on and inside your body. You can't process food without bacteria.
Right now it is taking 3x longer to get items from a Chinese warehouse to North America. This will only get worse as factory production will plummet in China, both due to workforce staying away and from a raw material standpoint.
Right now the airline and hospitality industry is getting hurt the most. Major conferences are being cancelled. I can foresee lack of inventory of items produced in China in the short term. Some people have said that this will be a boon to the onshore manufacturing industry. I don't agree. The amount of time required to get any plant running will be longer than this outbreak will be minimized. This could cause even larger problems in the long run.
The stock markets react strongly negativity to uncertainty. I've actually seen stocks increase in value when the 'bad news' be confirmed and not be as bad as anticipated or to be as anticipated. They will rebound as this is only a short term problem. If you own mutual funds in the short term you will be hurt but long term you will be just fine. The markets will correct once the uncertainty has passed.
Thank you very much, everyone, for your well-thought-out replies to my question. To be perfectly honest, I found myself reading and rereading many of your in-depth insights shared here.
I do not know how true this is, but, I remember reading somewhere that this virus could possibly be man-made. Given the advancements in science and technology in conjunction with gross deviancy, I certainly would not rule this out.
George
I do not know how true this is, but, I remember reading somewhere that this virus could possibly be man-made. Given the advancements in science and technology in conjunction with gross deviancy, I certainly would not rule this out.
George
be assured - George, trump knows all about it : the Europeans are to blame ( not even the chinese)
evn after his denial of the virus being a problem before…..
evn after his denial of the virus being a problem before…..
Thanks ..............and a major fiscal package will be announced in the next couple days if not today.
Sadly I don't hear of any stimulus that would help retired people.
Australia is sending every adult a check for $1100.
Sadly I don't hear of any stimulus that would help retired people.
Australia is sending every adult a check for $1100.
Australia is sending every adult a check for $1100. Which with the current price gouging going on this may get you 1 roll of TP on Amazon or 3 refurbished rolls (slightly stained) of TP on Ebay.
WASH YOUR HANDS and use SOAP
The US has lagged behind other countries. S. Korea has it contained by giving 10,000 test a day. Based on proportional populations and hearing the administration speak of 1 million test kits that is a joke. We need 50+ million test kits.
Every person needs to be tested because 1000's are out there with the virus but no symptoms but still able to transmit it to others.
Every person needs to be tested because 1000's are out there with the virus but no symptoms but still able to transmit it to others.
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