Building Probability Models in Excel Part 3: Monte Carlo Simulations and Conditional Probability

Posted on
6,982 Points
1 Endorsement
Last Modified:
Experience Level: Beginner
The view will learn how to download and install SIMTOOLS and FORMLIST into Excel, how to use SIMTOOLS to generate a Monte Carlo simulation of 30 sales calls, and how to calculate the conditional probability based on the results of the
Monte Carlo simulation.

Video Steps

1. Download and Install SIMTOOLS: Search Roger Myerson on Google, and click on the first link

2. Follow the links to find the SIMTOOLS download and download it

3. Go to Excel add-ins, click Select and find the file

4. Check the square to the left of SIMTOOLS.XLAM

5. Click Select to install

6. Use SIMTOOLS to generate a Monte Carlo Simulation: Open the spreadsheet from the last tutorial that simulates 30 sales calls

7. Enter =IF(C2=E2,1,0) into cell B33 and enter =C4 into cell C33

8. Enter target number of sales =12 into cell C26

9. Select A33:C232

10. Click Tools > SimTools > Simulation Table

11. Calculate the Conditional Probability: Enter =IF(C34=$C$26,B34,”..”) into D34 and copy down to D232

12. Enter =SUM(D34:D232) into Cell F28 and label “# High Skill”

13. Enter =COUNT(D34:D232) into Cell F29 and label “Total Target”

14. Enter =F28/F29 into Cell F31

Author:Toby Reaper

Featured Post

Never miss a deadline with monday.com

The revolutionary project management tool is here!   Plan visually with a single glance and make sure your projects get done.

Join & Write a Comment

I came across an unsolved Outlook issue and here is my solution.
In this article, I will demonstrate that how to do a PST migration from Exchange Server to Office 365. This method allows importing one single PST, or multiple PST's at once.

Keep in touch with Experts Exchange

Tech news and trends delivered to your inbox every month